The third weekend of 2013 should total about $106 million for the top 12 films, down a bit from the same weekend the past few years. Three movies open Friday and an Oscar hopeful expands into wide release, but no film should gross much more than $15 million Friday-Sunday.
Opening in about 2,400 theaters Friday, Mama from Universal should average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.2 million wide-opening weekend –as usual, forecasting the traditional three-day Friday-Sunday portion only). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are split: 54% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. Mama will try to get to $40 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,700 theaters, Broken City from 20th Century Fox should average a sub-par $4,500 per theater (for a $12.0 million opening weekend). Critics are borderline hostile (currently 25% positive rating). Broken City should end up with $30 million domestic.
Opening at 2,800 theaters, The Last Stand from Lionsgate should average a weak $3,300 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $9.2 million opening weekend). Critics are surprisingly supportive in the early reviews: 87% positive so far. The Last Stand should play a little longer than Broken City and get to $30 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 18-20, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Mama | Uni | PG13 | 54% | 15.2 | 40 | |
| Broken City | Fox | R | 25% | 12.0 | 30 | |
| The Last Stand | LG | R | 87% | 9.2 | 30 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Silver Linings Playbook expands to well over 2,000 theaters this weekend, but it will struggle to move past $10 million Friday-Sunday. Zero Dark Thirty will be the top holdover in all probability and has a shot at #1 overall again for the weekend if Mama stumbles out of the gate.
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RETURNING FILMS January 18-20, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | -41% | 14.3 | 95 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | +86% | 9.4 | 70 | |
| Gangster Squad | WB | -48% | 8.9 | 45 | |
| A Haunted House | OpenRoad | -53% | 8.5 | 55 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | -36% | 7.0 | 165 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | -36% | 6.1 | 140 | |
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | -40% | 5.6 | 295 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -21% | 5.0 | 175 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $110 million (while 2011 was $89 million and 2010 was $128 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a mediocre $106 million, down 7% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.20.2012
Underworld Awakening SONY R Kate Beckinsale Michael Ealy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $72 Actual: $62
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
Red Tails FOX PG13 Cuba Gooding Jr Terrence Howard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB PG13 Tom Hanks Thomas Horn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Haywire REL R Channing Tatum Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
1.21.2011
No Strings Attached PAR R Ashton Kutcher Natalie Portman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $74 Actual: $71
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $77
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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