January 20, 2013


Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #3 of 2013 is now on pace for $122 million, up from the $113 million estimate yesterday and now running ahead of the pace for the comparable weekend the past several years.  Just about every film in the top 12 picked up the pace with solid business on Saturday.  

Mama now looks like an opening three-day weekend of $28 million (up two million from yesterday’s estimate) and is now headed for $79 million total domestic.

The Jessica Chastain weekend continued with a very good Saturday for Zero Dark Thirty ($7.3 million yesterday, way up from $4.5 million Friday).  Zero‘s weekend pace has also been increased by more than two million dollars, and the final domestic gross has been increased to $105 million.

Silver Linings Playbook has also been adjusted upward in terms of both its weekend gross (now over $11 million) and its final domestic potential ($73 million).

Broken City starring Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe ($23 million final domestic) and The Last Stand starring Arnold Schwarzenegger ($17 million final domestic) are destined for anonymity.

Weekend 3: January 18-20, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri-Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Mama Uni [15.2] 26.0 28.1 10.1–11.0 79
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [14.3] 15.2 17.6 4.5–7.3 105
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [9.4] 9.8 11.3 2.9–4.6 73
Gangster Squad WB [8.9] 8.8 9.1 2.7–3.7 53
Broken City Fox [12.0] 8.7 9.0 2.9–3.5 23
A Haunted House OpenRoad [8.5] 7.7 8.3 2.4–3.4 45
Django Unchained Weins [7.0] 7.8 8.2 2.2–3.4 165
Les Miserables Uni [6.1] 7.3 7.8 2.0–3.0 150
The Hobbit WB [5.6] 6.1 6.4 1.4–2.8 300
The Last Stand LG [9.2] 5.7 6.3 2.0–2.5 17
Lincoln DW/Fox/Dis [5.0] 5.3 5.4 1.4–2.5 175

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $122 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than the $113 estimate yesterday an now up 7% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 11% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #3 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $122 Mama $28, Broken City $9, The Last Stand $6
2012 $110 Underworld Awakening $25, Red Tails $19, Extremely Loud $10
2011 $89 No Strings Attached $20
2010 $128 Legion $17, The Tooth Fairy $14, Extraordinary Measures $6
2009 $130 Underworld Rise of the Lycans $21, Inkheart $7
Avg 2009-12 $114

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.