>The fourth weekend of the year should generate about $91 million for the top 12 films — about the same as last year’s comparable weekend and down 10% from a “normal” weekend this time of year. The top film should be Liam Neeson in The Grey, at a very unspectacular $15 opening weekend number.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters, The Grey from Open Road Films should average a mediocre $4,950 per theater (for $15 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Critics on RottenTomatoes are so far supportive: 78% 79% positive reviews. The Grey is on track for a preliminary $50 million domestically.
Opening in about 2,900 theaters, the thriller Man on a Ledge from Summit should average a weak $3,400 per theater ($10 million Friday-Sunday). Excoriated by critics so far (only 13% 17% positive reviews), Man on a Ledge is headed for a total domestic gross of $23 million.
In over 2,700 theaters, One for the Money from Lionsgate should average about $3,500 per theater ($9.5 million from Friday-Sunday). No reviews yet — the film has been hidden from critics. But it is sure to be dumped on (hey, it’s a Katherine Heigl film — now with action thrown in with the light comedy!). The film is also on track for a final tally of $23 million domestic.
Expanding to almost 1,000 theaters, The Artist should average only $3,700 per theater ($3.7 million Friday-Sunday, bringing its total to date to $17 million on Sunday). Despite nearly universal raves (97% positive) and what seems to be an inevitable Best Picture Oscar, The Artist should have relatively limited commercial appeal. As ShowBuzzDaily’s Mitch Salem wrote back in September, “The Artist is a beautiful film hot-house flower, designed to flourish in the rarefied atmosphere of festivals and gatherings of cineastes. It’s a curio that will be cherished by some, and probably ignored by most of the masses.” Total domestic gross should be around $39 million.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
January 27-29 Positive Weekend Total*
The Grey Open R 79% $15.0 $ 50
Man on a Ledge Sum PG13 17% $10.0 $ 23
One for the Money LG PG13 n/a $ 9.5 $ 23
Expanding
The Artist Wein PG13 97% $ 3.7 $ 39
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Among the returning films this weekend, Underworld Awakening and Red Tails are the only significant players.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
January 27-29 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Underworld Awakening Sony -55% $11.5 $ 65
Red Tails Fox -40% $11.5 $ 52
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB -20% $ 8.0 $ 31
Contraband Uni -44% $ 7.0 $ 75
Beauty & Beast 3D Dis -42% $ 5.0 $ 58
Haywire Rel -48% $ 4.5 $ 26
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $102 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $92 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $110 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $91 million, down 1% from this weekend last year but down a more significant 10% from “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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