Weekend #28 of 2012 looks fairly soft: $159 million for the top 12 films, down 37% from last year’s comparable weekend (the opening of the last Harry Potter — talk about a high bar) and down 23% from the four-year average for the weekend.
Opening at around 3,800 theaters, Ice Age: Continental Drift from 20th Century Fox should average $15,400 per theater (for $58.5 million for the opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a mediocre 59% positive. Ice Age: Continental Drift currently stands at a preliminary $195 million ShowbuzzDaily domestic estimate, similar to the last two Ice Age films ($196.5 million for Dawn of the Dinosaurs in July 2009 and $195.3 million for The Meltdown in March 2006). The original Ice Age grossed $176.4 million domestically in March 2002.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| July 13-15, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Ice Age: Continental Drift |
Fox | PG | 59% | 58.5 | 195 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Amazing Spider-Man (with a standard 50% second week drop) and Ted (with a very good -34% decline from last weekend) will provide most of the rest of this weekend’s business.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| July 13-15, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Amazing Spider-Man | Fox | -50% | 31.0 | 281 | |
| Ted | Uni | -34% | 21.3 | 207 | |
| Brave | Dis | -47% | 10.3 | 241 | |
| Savages | Uni | -48% | 8.4 | 48 | |
| Magic Mike | WB | -50% | 7.8 | 112 | |
| TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | -54% | 4.7 | 66 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -44% | 4.2 | 226 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | -19% | 3.7 | 44 | |
| Katy Perry: Part of Me | Par | -50% | 3.6 | 22 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $207 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year (July 15-17) this weekend’s total was $252 million (while July 16-18-11, 2010 was $171 million). For the past few years this has been the weekend of The Dark Knight, several Harry Potter films (including the finale), as well as Inception. This weekend the torch is being passed to another Ice Age, perfectly solid commercially but not in that league. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $159 million, down 37% from this weekend last year and down 23% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7/15/11
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Emma Watson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $151 Actual: $169
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $377 Actual: $381
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $947
Winnie the Pooh DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
7/16/10
Inception WB PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Ken Watanabe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $71 Actual: $63
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $267 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $533
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice DIS PG Nicolas Cage Alfred Molina
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $63
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $152
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
Posting from me is going to be a little spotty for several days, but Mitch Salem will keep the numbers and analysis and reviews flowing as best he can.
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