Weekend Box Office Predictions JULY 19-21

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The 29th weekend of the year is looking like $178 million for the top 12 films, about normal for this weekend on average the past few years but down significantly from last year, which was dominated by the opening of The Dark Knight Rises and the madness of the theater shooting in suburban Denver.

Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday (somewhat below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends) after a masterful and omnipresent marketing campaign, The Conjuring from Warner Brothers should average $11,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $31 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are effusive for a horror film: 85% positive so far. The Conjuring should be on track for $100 million domestic, holding better week to week than a typical horror film.

Opening at 3,552 theaters today, Turbo from 20th Century Fox and DreamWorks Animation should average $7,000 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $25.5 million opening weekend). After about $10 million combined Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total about $35 million Wednesday-Sunday. The film is averaging a fairly decent 65% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far, but the marketing has really felt weak and lazy. Turbo should be on course for maybe $105 million domestic, with a fairly decent weekly decline pattern given its appeal to kids and families. 

Opening at around 2,900 theaters Friday, Red 2 from Summit should average $7,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $22.5 million opening weekend). Just a handful of reviews are posted on RottenTomatoes so far, and the trend is not good (only one out of six positive). Red 2 should be on course for maybe $70 million domestic, down significantly from $90.4 million for Red (released October 15, 2010).

Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, R.I.P.D. from Universal should average $5,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a very average $14.5 million opening weekend). No reviews at RottenTomatoes yet: Bomb Alert. R.I.P.D. should be on course for maybe $38 million domestic.