>This weekend will be the first one in a while to underperform the same weekend in 2010. One highly-anticipated film is looking like it will do well but not great, and one kid/teen movie is looking like it will come and go very quietly.
Opening at about 3,200 theaters,
Super 8 should average a strong $10,300 per theater (for $33 million this weekend) — but this number might have been much higher. Critical reviews for this JJ Abrams film have been broadly positive, but interest-in-seeing tracking surveys have been persistently soft. So the studio is tweaking its
launch strategy. Also, the television ad campaign has been all over the place creatively (brooding sci-fi, straight horror, or what?). It’s our guess that consumers are intrigued by Abrams’ and Spielberg’s connection to the movie but are confused by the premise, with many choosing to wait this one out.
At about 2,000 theaters,
Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer should average a below-par $3,100 (for $6.5 million this weekend). Based on a series of books for tweens, the movie will attract some female kids and younger teens, but it is unlikely to be a magnet for their parents. Successful parent-kid co-viewing films usually aim a little younger on the kid scale while simultaneously providing adult humor that sails above the kids’ heads. Based on the TV ads,
Judy Moody relies on silly barf humor that will appeal to few adults.
Expanding to almost 1,000 theaters, Midnight in Paris now has enough distribution to enter our box office model. Midnight should gross about $5.5 million this weekend (a slightly above average $5,900 per theater — although remember that movie has been carefully platformed for three weeks to build buzz and $7.4 worth of business to date).
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
June 10-12 Positive Weekend Total*
Super 8 Par PG13 82% $33 $ 96
Judy Moody NOT Bummer Rel PG 14% $ 6.5 $ 13
Midnight in Paris Sony PG13 92% $ 5.5 $ 38
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
X-Men: First Class should be a solid second place, while we expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to possibly have a slightly better weekend than Hangover Part II (as the steeper weekly decline figures are catching up with Hangover). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids are getting close to slipping beneath the $10 million mark.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
June 3-5 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
X-Men: First Class Fox -50% $28 $165
Hangover Part II WB -53% $15 $262
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par/DW -36% $15 $167
Pirates 4 Dis -43% $10 $247
Bridesmaids Uni -24% $ 9 $144
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $148 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $145 million, and June 12-14, 2009 was $132 million. This weekend is looking like a fairly soft $130 million.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.11.10
The A-Team FOX PG13 Liam Neeson Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $77
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $100
The Karate Kid SONY PG Jaden Smith Jackie Chan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $185 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $182
6.12.09
Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 SONY R Denzel Washington John Travolta
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $74 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $85
Imagine That PAR PG Eddie Murphy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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