>This weekend will feature a moderately successful comic book movie targeting teens and young adults and a mediocre opening for a family comedy aimed at kids and young parents. Last year Toy Story 3 opened this weekend to huge business, forcing year-to-year declines for the weekend overall.
CORRECTION — The titles in the June 19, 2009 movies list at the bottom of this post have been corrected. The forecast and actual data remain unchanged.
Opening at about 3,600 theaters, Green Lantern should average a strong $15,300 per theater (for $55 million this weekend). Critical reception so far has been soft, only 27% positive at RottenTomatoes.
At about 3,200 theaters,
Mr Popper’s Penguins should average a more normal $5,500 (for $18 million this weekend). Critical reaction to the Jim Carrey family comedy has been mixed (50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
June 17-19 Positive Weekend Total*
Green Lantern WB PG13 27% $55 $157
Mr Popper’s Penguins Fox PG 50% $18 $ 65
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Super 8 should be fighting for second place with Mr Popper’s Penguins, while we expect X-Men: First Class, Kung Fu Panda 2, and Hangover Part II all fall toward the $10 million weekend mark.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
June 17-19 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Super 8 Par -44% $20 $104
X-Men: First Class Fox -50% $12 $160
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par/DW -33% $11 $170
Hangover Part II WB -42% $10 $252
Bridesmaids Uni -25% $ 7.5 $156
Pirates 4 Dis -42% $ 6.5 $234
Midnight in Paris Sony -21% $ 4.5 $ 38
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $150 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total (fueled by the opening of Toy Story 3 was $191 million, and June 19-21, 2009 was $145 million. This weekend is looking like a fairly soft $140 million.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.18.10
Toy Story 3 DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $105 Actual: $110
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $393 Actual: $415
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $648
Jonah Hex WB PG13 Josh Brolin Megan Fox
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $8 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
6.19.09
Nothing Like the Holidays OVERTURE PG13 John Leguizamo Freddy Rodriguez
The Proposal DIS PG13 Sandra Bullock Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119 Actual: $164
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $151
Delgo FREE PG
Year One SONY PG13 Jack Black Michael Cera
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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