June 16, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>This weekend will feature a moderately successful comic book movie targeting teens and young adults and a mediocre opening for a family comedy aimed at kids and young parents.  Last year Toy Story 3 opened this weekend to huge business, forcing year-to-year declines for the weekend overall.

CORRECTIONThe titles in the June 19, 2009 movies list at the bottom of this post have been corrected.  The forecast and actual data remain unchanged.  

Opening at about 3,600 theaters, Green Lantern should average a strong $15,300 per theater (for $55 million this weekend).  Critical reception so far has been soft, only 27% positive at RottenTomatoes. 
At about 3,200 theaters, Mr Popper’s Penguins should average a more normal $5,500 (for $18 million this weekend).  Critical reaction to the Jim Carrey family comedy has been mixed (50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes).


New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
June 17-19                       Positive   Weekend   Total*
Green Lantern           WB  PG13   27%        $55      $157
Mr Popper’s Penguins   Fox  PG     50%        $18      $ 65
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Super 8 should be fighting for second place with Mr Popper’s Penguins, while we expect X-Men: First Class, Kung Fu Panda 2, and Hangover Part II all fall toward the $10 million weekend mark.     
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
June 17-19                      vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
Super 8                Par        -44%      $20       $104
X-Men: First Class   
  Fox        -50%      $12       $160

Kung Fu Panda 2     Par/DW        -33%      $11       $170
Hangover Part II 
      WB        -42%      $10       $252

Bridesmaids            Uni        -25%      $ 7.5     $156
Pirates 4        
     Dis        -42%      $ 6.5     $234
Midnight in Paris     Sony        -21%      $ 4.5     $ 38 
Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $150 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total (fueled by the opening of Toy Story 3 was $191 million, and June 19-21, 2009 was $145 million.  This weekend is looking like a fairly soft $140 million.   

This Weekend Last Two Years
 Toy Story 3 DIS G    
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $105  Actual: $110
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $393  Actual: $415
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $648
 Jonah Hex WB PG13 Josh Brolin Megan Fox  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11  Actual: $5
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $8  Actual: $10
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0
 Nothing Like the Holidays OVERTURE PG13 John Leguizamo Freddy Rodriguez  
 The Proposal DIS PG13 Sandra Bullock Ryan Reynolds
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25  Actual: $34
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119  Actual: $164
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $151
 Delgo FREE PG    
 Year One SONY PG13 Jack Black Michael Cera   

 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20  Actual: $20

 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42  Actual: $43
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $17
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.