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June 3, 2011
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JUNE 3-5: Slight Adjustment

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>X-Men: First Class now has an accurate screen count and updated critical response.  The prequel has been adjusted downward a tick but will still lead the weekend, which will be up significantly over the same weekend last year.

Opening at about 3,641 theaters, X-Men: First Class should average a strong $18,700 per theater (for $68 million this weekend).  Critical reviews for this prequel have been broadly positive, although the RottenTomatoes positive review score has dropped to about 86% (still a very good score) after being in the low- to mid-90s earlier in the week.  

                                              (millions)

New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
June 3-5                         Positive   Weekend   Total*
X-Men: First Class     Fox  PG13   86%        $68      $195

Prior X-Men Films
X-Men Origins: Wolverine 5.01.09   37%        $85      $180
X-Men: The Last Stand    5.26.06   57%        $103     $234 
X2: X-Men United         5.02.03   88%        $86      $215 
X-Men                    7.14.00   82%        $54      $157

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
In case you missed it, read the complete Weekend Predictions post.

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.
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