June 2, 2011

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JUNE 3-5: X-Men: First Class to Lead Another Strong Weekend

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Box office momentum continues this weekend with one strong new entry and several solid holdovers.  We expect another weekend tally above the same weekend in 2010.

Opening at about 3,400 theaters, X-Men: First Class should average a very strong $20,800 per theater (for $71 million this weekend).  Critical reviews for this prequel have been broadly positive, even more so than the first two X-Men movies and much more positive than the last two films (which were mediocre to weak critically). 


New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
June 3-5                         Positive   Weekend   Total*
X-Men: First Class     Fox  PG13   92%        $71      $211

Prior X-Men Films
X-Men Origins: Wolverine 5.01.09   37%        $85      $180
X-Men: The Last Stand    5.26.06   57%        $103     $234 
X2: X-Men United         5.02.03   88%        $86      $215 
X-Men                    7.14.00   82%        $54      $157

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Hangover Part II will be a solid second place, while we expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to have a slightly better weekend decline figure.  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids continue to rack up solid box office numbers.     
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
June 3-5                        vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
Hangover Part II        WB        -55%      $38.5     $295
Kung Fu Panda 2     Par/DW        -46%      $25.5     $174 
Pirates 4              Dis        -53%      $20       $241

Bridesmaids            Uni        -26%      $12       $134

Thor                   Par        -51%      $ 4.5     $186

Fast Five              Uni        -49%      $ 3.5     $211

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $146 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $122 million, and June 5-7, 2009 was $161 million.  This weekend is looking like a very healthy $180 million: another up weekend is in store.   

This Weekend Last Two Years

 Get Him to the Greek UNI R Jonah Hill Russell Brand  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66  Actual: $61
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $30
 Killers LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Ashton Kutcher  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16  Actual: $16
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46  Actual: $47
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $45
 Marmaduke FOX PG Judy Greer William H Macy  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33  Actual: $33
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $50
 Splice WB R Adrien Brody Sarah Polley  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23  Actual: $17
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $9
 The Hangover WB R Bradley Cooper   
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27  Actual: $45
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $201  Actual: $277
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $182
 Land of the Lost UNI PG13 Will Ferrell Anna Friel  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29  Actual: $19
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54  Actual: $49
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16
 My Life in Ruins FOX PG13 Rachel Dratch Richard Dreyfuss  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6  Actual: $9
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $9
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.