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Box office momentum continues this weekend with one strong new entry and several solid holdovers. We expect another weekend tally above the same weekend in 2010.
Opening at about 3,400 theaters, X-Men: First Class should average a very strong $20,800 per theater (for $71 million this weekend). Critical reviews for this prequel have been broadly positive, even more so than the first two X-Men movies and much more positive than the last two films (which were mediocre to weak critically).
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
June 3-5 Positive Weekend Total*
X-Men: First Class Fox PG13 92% $71 $211
Prior X-Men Films
X-Men Origins: Wolverine 5.01.09 37% $85 $180
X-Men: The Last Stand 5.26.06 57% $103 $234
X2: X-Men United 5.02.03 88% $86 $215
X-Men 7.14.00 82% $54 $157
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Hangover Part II will be a solid second place, while we expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to have a slightly better weekend decline figure. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids continue to rack up solid box office numbers.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
June 3-5 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Hangover Part II WB -55% $38.5 $295
Kung Fu Panda 2 Par/DW -46% $25.5 $174
Pirates 4 Dis -53% $20 $241
Bridesmaids Uni -26% $12 $134
Thor Par -51% $ 4.5 $186
Fast Five Uni -49% $ 3.5 $211
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $146 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $122 million, and June 5-7, 2009 was $161 million. This weekend is looking like a very healthy $180 million: another up weekend is in store.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.4.10
Get Him to the Greek UNI R Jonah Hill Russell Brand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Killers LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Ashton Kutcher
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45
Marmaduke FOX PG Judy Greer William H Macy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50
Splice WB R Adrien Brody Sarah Polley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9
6.5.09
The Hangover WB R Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $45
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $201 Actual: $277
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $182
Land of the Lost UNI PG13 Will Ferrell Anna Friel
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
My Life in Ruins FOX PG13 Rachel Dratch Richard Dreyfuss
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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