The 20th weekend of the year is looking like $158 million for the top 12 films, a little better than average for this weekend over the past few years but much better than the same weekend last year, which featured the opening of the one of the greatest clunkers/ punchlines/ punching bags ever: Battleship from Universal. This weekend welcomes Star Trek Into Darkness, a more worthy summer entry.
Opening at over 3,762 theaters Thursday (a theater count in the top 10% of releases), Star Trek Into Darkness from Paramount should average $22,900 per theater for the traditional weekend (for an $86 million opening Friday-Sunday, following a $35 million preview tomorrow — for $121 million Thursday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are very solid: 86% positive reviews. Star Trek Into Darkness should be on course for $290 million domestic, beating the $258 million domestic for Star Trek in May 2009 (also by director J.J. Abrams and writers Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci), which opened to $75.2 million May 8-10 and a near universally-positive 95% score on RottenTomatoes.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 17-19, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | PG13 | 86% | 86 | 290 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
In its third weekend, Iron Man 3 will fall to #2 but will remain the strongest holdover film.
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RETURNING FILMS May 17-19, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Iron Man 3 | Dis | -56% | 32.3 | 430 | |
| Great Gatsby | WB | -55% | 22.5 | 130 | |
| 42 | WB | -35% | 3.0 | 98 | |
| Pain and Gain | Par | -49% | 2.6 | 50 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -31% | 2.5 | 178 | |
| Peeples | LG | -49% | 2.4 | 10 | |
| Mud | OpenRoad | -23% | 2.0 | 20 | |
| Oblivion | Uni | -54% | 1.9 | 92 | |
| The Big Wedding | LG | -46% | 1.4 | 20 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $136 million (while 2011 was $159 million and 2010 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $158 million, up 4% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 16% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.18.2012
Battleship UNI PG13 Taylor Kitsch Rihanna
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $68 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $238
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG PG13 Cameron Diaz Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
The Dictator PAR R Sacha Baron Cohen Anna Faris
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $118
5.20.2011
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides DIS PG13 Johnny Depp Penelope Cruz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $95 Actual: $90
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $241 Actual: $241
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $803
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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