April 30, 2014

Weekend Box Office Predictions MAY 2-4

Weekend #18 of 2014 is looking like a relatively soft $139 million for the top 12 films, 28% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($192 million).

Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Amazing Spider-Man 2 from Sony should average $21,400 per theater for the weekend (for an $85.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not exactly enthusiastic: 63% positive so far generally but only 35% positive with top-tier critics. Amazing Spider-Man 2 is on track for around $235 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $520 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $755 million (very close to the last Spider-Man, with larger overseas grosses offsetting domestic declines from any comic fatigue).   

The previous Andrew Garfield outing, The Amazing Spider Man (released July 3, 2012), grossed $752.2 million worldwide ($262.0 million domestic and $490.2 million overseas).   The Tobey Maguire Spider-Man series peaked at $890.9 million worldwide for Spider-Man 3 (May 4, 2007 with $336.5 million domestic and $554.3 million overseas), followed by $821.7 million worldwide for Spider-Man (May 3, 2002 with $403.7 million domestic and $418.0 million overseas) and “only” $783.8 million worldwide for Spider-Man 2 (June 30, 2004 with $373.6 million domestic and $410.2 million overseas).



May 2-4, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony PG13 63% 85.5 235
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Among the holdovers, The Other Woman is now the sole movie over $10 million this weekend, although Heaven Is for Real is knocking on the door of that threshold.


May 2-4, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Other Woman Fox -46% 13.3 78
Heaven Is for Real Sony -37% 9.0 93
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis -49% 8.3 261
Rio 2 Fox -46% 7.5 132
Brick Mansions Rel -61% 3.7 25
Bears Dis -41% 2.2 24
Divergent WB -45% 2.0 150
Transcendence WB -60% 1.7 22
Draft Day LG/Sum -46% 1.5 32


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $192 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $211 million (while 2012 was $250 million, 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a relatively puny $139 million, 28% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 34% above the same weekend last year.


This Weekend Last Two Years


Iron Man 3 Dis PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $158 Actual: $174
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $445 Actual: $409
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $806

Mud Road PG13 Matthew McConaughey Sam Shepard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $21 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0


Marvel’s The Avengers Dis PG13 Robert Downey Jr Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $162 Actual: $207
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $624 Actual: $623
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $888


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.