May 27, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The Hangover Part II Domestic Total estimate has been upgraded to slightly exceed the first Hangover.

The Hangover Part II‘s Domestic Total estimate has been upgraded to $285 million, slightly beating the $277 million of Part I.  There are two main reasons for this.  First, the original estimate generated by the ShowBuzzDaily model did not properly account for a Thursday number (originally estimated to be around $20 million).  Second, the actual Thursday number looks to be closer to $30 million.  Also, Kung Fu Panda 2 has been adjusted downward a few million dollars.  (Read Mitch Salem’s reviews of The Hangover Part II and Kung Fu Panda 2.)   
New Films                        Critics   Opening  Domestic
May 27-29 THREE-DAY ONLY         Positive  Weekend   Total*
The Hangover Part II     WB  R      33%      $85      $285
Kung Fu Panda 2      Par/DW  PG     74%      $65      $220

There will be a lot of numbers flying around this weekend and into next week because “the weekend” can be defined as a three-, four- or five-day event.  The ShowBuzzDaily box office model focuses on three-day numbers (because all films share that element) and then layers in additional days such as an early-opening Thursday or a holiday Monday.  When you hear how Hangover or Panda opens this weekend always look for how many days they are talking about.  The guide below should help put these various weekend definitions in perspective.

                                  3-Day     4-Day     5-day

May 26-30 MULTI-DAY              Fri-Sun   Thu-Sun   Thu-Mon
The Hangover Part II     WB        $85      $115      $135
Kung Fu Panda 2      Par/DW        $65      $ 70      $ 90

Click here to read the original Weekend Box Office Prediction post.  

Check back starting Saturday morning and throughout the weekend for updates on how the high-profile sequels are performing. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.