The 46th weekend of the year is looking like $115 million for the top 12 films, around 50% below this weekend the last few years. Usually this weekend is a big warm-up to the long Thanksgiving weekend the following week, but this year Thanksgiving falls later than normal on the calendar relatively speaking, leaving this weekend somewhat adrift.
Opening at over 2,000 theaters Friday (well under the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Best Man Holiday from Universal should average a decent $10,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 69% positive so far. Best Man Holiday is on track for $75 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND November 15-17, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Best Man Holiday | Uni | R | 69% | 21.5 | 75 | |
Even with a second weekend drop of over -50%, Thor: The Dark World will remain #1 with around $40 million.
|
RETURNING FILMS November 15-17, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | -53% | 40.2 | 201 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | -26% | 8.2 | 56 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | -27% | 8.1 | 61 | |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | -35% | 7.4 | 111 | |
| Gravity | WB | -26% | 6.3 | 259 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | -12% | 5.9 | 41 | |
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | -42% | 5.9 | 64 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | -25% | 4.3 | 107 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $223 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $242 million (while 2011 was $215 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $115 million, down 48% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 52% from the comparable weekend last year. The reason this weekend looks so anemic is really a quirk of the calendar. Usually the weekend before Thanksgiving falls on the 46th weekend, but this year Thanksgiving is two weeks away because of the way the calendar falls. This year, weekend #47 (next weekend) will be the weekend before Thanksgiving. So this weekend is an odd kind of orphan weekend, with little in the way of new product. These comparison points will be much more applicable next weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.16.2012
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $147 Actual: $141
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $318 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $537
Lincoln DIS PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Sally Field
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $182
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93
11.18.2011
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 SUMMIT PG13 Robert Pattinson Kristen Stewart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $149 Actual: $138
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $303 Actual: $281
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $424
Happy Feet Two WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $86
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
