September 9, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The weekend now looks like $52 million for the top 12 films instead of the $50 million estimate yesterday.  But the basic rank order remains the same.  The Possession remains at #1 and is headed for a final domestic gross of over $50 million now, while Lawless has increased to a $40 million total.  The Words and especially The Cold Light of Day opened and crashed hard.  


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  The Words ($11 million) and The Cold Light of Day ($3 million).

Second week film:  The Possession ($53 million, up significantly from last week’s initial estimate) and Lawless ($40 million, also up from last week).

Third week films:  2016 Obama’s America ($36 million, up again from last week), Premium Rush ($24 million, even with last week) and Hit and Run ($17 million, up slightly from last week).

Fourth week films:  The Expendables 2 ($89 million, up a touch from last week), ParaNorman ($57 million, up slightly from last week), The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($52 million, up from last week’s estimate) and Sparkle ($24 million, even with last week).

Weekend 36: Sep 7-9, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
The Possession LG -46% 9.5 53
Lawless Weins -40% 6.0 40
The Words CBS 5.0 11
The Expendables 2 LG -47% 4.8 89
Bourne Legacy Uni -45% 4.0 115
ParaNorman Foc/ Uni -42% 3.8 57
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis -42% 3.7 52
The Campaign WB -38% 3.5 90
Dark Knight Rises WB -46% 3.3 443
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mtn -42% 3.3 36
Hope Springs Sony -40% 2.8 67
Premium Rush Sony -42% 2.3 24
Cold Light of Day Summit 1.8 3


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a hideous $52 million total Friday-Sunday (slightly better than the $50 million it looked like yesterday), down 20% from the same weekend last year and down 29% from the average comparable weekend the last four years.  This is only marginally better than the $50.3 million weekend back in September 5-7, 2008.   And you have to go back to 2003 (also September 5-7) to find an equally terrible showing ($50.5 million for the top 12 films).

($ millions)
WEEKEND #36 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $52 The Words $5, Cold Light of Day $1.8
2011 $65 Contagion $22, Warrior $5, Bucky Larson $1
2010 $66 Resident Evil: Afterlife $27
2009 $76 TP I Can Do Bad $23, 9 $11, Sorority Row $5
2008 $86 Burn After Reading $19, Family That Preys $17
Avg 2008-11 $73

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are Resident Evil: Retribution from Sony (action horror starring Milla Jovovich) and the 3D re-release of Finding Nemo from Disney.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Lion King 3D  ($30.2 million opening weekend), Drive ($11.3 million), Straw Dogs ($5.1 million) and I Don’t Know How She Does It ($4.4 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.