WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS October 21-23

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This weekend looks like it will have a very solid opener (the best since August 5, when Rise of the Planet of the Apes bowed) but the weekend as a whole should still lag behind the same weekend last year.  The third Paranormal Activity has its sights set on over $41 million this weekend, while The Three Musketeers should open with $12 million and Johnny English Reborn with a very weak $5.5 million.  Rowan Atkinson might play around the world, but he has very little appeal in the U.S.  The weekend should be about 14% below the same weekend last year, when the second Paranormal Activity opened and the second weekend of Jackass 3-D solidified the weekend’s business. 

At about 3,000 theaters, The Three Musketeers from Summit should average a soft $3,900 per theater (for $12 million this weekend).  The period action film has a poor 28% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far.  This movie is probably headed for around $29 million domestically. 

At only about 1,500 theaters, Johnny English Reborn distributed by Universal should average a weak $3,700 per theater (for $5.5 million this weekend).  The Rowan Atkinson comedy (oh, goodie, yet another one!) has only 40% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  This movie is probably headed for around $14 million domestically. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
October 21-23                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Paranormal Activity 3   Par  R     89%      $41.5     $ 97 
The Three Musketeers Summit  PG13  28%      $12.0     $ 29
Johnny English Reborn   Uni  PG    40%      $ 5.5     $ 14

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The third weekend of Real Steel should be the strongest holdover film this weekend (at a modest $10.3 million), followed closely by the second weekend of Footloose. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
October 21-23                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Real Steel            Sony        -37%      $10.3     $ 95
Footloose              Par        -42%      $ 9.0     $ 50
Ides of March       DW/DIS        -32%      $ 5.0     $ 43
Dolphin Tale            WB        -29%      $ 4.5     $ 75
Moneyball             Sony        -32%      $ 3.7     $ 72
The Thing              Uni        -60%      $ 3.5     $ 17
50/50               Summit        -32%      $ 2.9     $ 37 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $108 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $120 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $106 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $103 million, down a significant 14% from this weekend last year but down only 5% from the four-year average for this weekend.       

This Weekend Last Two Years

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.