WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS October 7-9

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This weekend should be another good one versus last year, up around 9%.  The strongest entry looks to be Hugh Jackman and the robot boxers in Real Steel — it’s playing in a lot of theaters and we expect a very solid per screen average, giving it a forecast $26 million opening.  (Aside from The Lion King 3D reissue, this would be the best opening since The Help in mid-August.)  In contrast, George Clooney’s The Ides of March is opening in a below average number of theaters.  Although its per theater number should be decent (but not as high as Real Steel’s), the opening weekend box office should be half of Real Steel’s tally.  Family favorite Dolphin Tale should round out the top three. 

At only about 2,000 theaters, The Ides of March from Sony should average a good $6,600 per theater (for $13 million this weekend).  The George Clooney-Ryan Gosling political thriller has a very good 80% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  This movie is probably headed for around $45 million domestically, although if it is in the Oscar hunt that will be revised upward significantly. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
October 2-9                      Positive   Weekend   Total*

Real Steel             Sony  PG13   71%      $ 26.0    $ 80 
Ides of March        DW/DIS  R      80%      $ 13.0    $ 45

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The third weekend film of Dolphin Tale should be the most significant player this weekend among the holdovers but not enough to challenge either of the two opening films.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
October 2-9                     vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Dolphin Tale            WB        -25%      $10.5     $ 75
Moneyball             Sony        -36%      $ 8.0     $ 75 
Courageous            Sony        -35%      $ 6.0     $ 25
50/50               Summit        -38%      $ 5.5     $ 35 
Lion King 3D           Dis        -55%      $ 5.0     $115
Dream House            Uni        -52%      $ 4.0     $ 11
What’s Your Number?    Fox        -45%      $ 3.0     $ 12
Abduction               LG        -45%      $ 3.0     $ 28 
Contagion               WB        -42%      $ 3.0     $ 80

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $87 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $81 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $96 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $89 million, up about 9% from this weekend last year but only 2% above the four-year average for this weekend.       

This Weekend Last Two Years