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A rather sleepy weekend ahead, most likely down about 15% from the same weekend last year. No dominant openers arrive Friday, leaving the weekend Contagion’s to lose.
At about 2,200 theaters, The Lion King in 3D from Disney should average $5,100 per theater (for $11 million this weekend). The re-release in the unnecessary extra dimension has been very well received by critics nationwide, with 91% positive at RottenTomatoes. This film is probably headed for around $40-50 million domestically, adding to the $328 million it made domestically and $788 million worldwide (in 1994 dollars). (In today’s dollars, the original run of Lion King would be $655 million domestic and $1.57 billion worldwide.)
Opening at 2,200 theaters from Sony, Straw Dogs should average a weak $3,600 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9 million opening weekend). Early reviews are mixed, with 60% positive. Straw Dogs is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.
Finally, opening at 2,800 theaters from Weinstein, I Don’t Know How She Does It should average a tepid $2,800 from Friday-Sunday (for an $8 million opening weekend). Early reviews are brutal, with only 29% positive. The Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle is on track for $20 million in North America.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
September 16-18 Positive Weekend Total*
Drive FilmDis R 94% $ 12.0 $ 45
Lion King 3D Dis G 91% $ 11.0 $ 45
Straw Dogs Sony R 60% $ 9.0 $ 25
I Don’t Know How She Wein PG13 29% $ 8.0 $ 20
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Contagion will probably hold on to the top spot with a decent 43% decline this weekend, although Drive or even The Lion King in 3D could challenge it for the weekend crown. The other returning films are slipping into oblivion, well below $10 million this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
September 16-18 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Contagion WB -43% $13.0 $ 72
The Help Dis/DW -31% $ 6.0 $171
Warrior LG -38% $ 3.5 $ 24
The Debt Focus -41% $ 3 $ 36
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox -46% $ 2 $183
Colombiana Sony -46% $ 2 $ 41
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total (and the total for the same weekend in 2009) was $87 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, down about 15% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
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