The 38th weekend of the year is looking like a wobbly $71 million for the top 12 films, down 19% from the $89 million multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at over 3,100 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Prisoners from Warner Brothers should average $5,900 per theater for the weekend (for an $18.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are strong at RottenTomatoes: 81% positive overall and 67% positive with top critics. Prisoners should be on track for $61 million domestic.
Opening at around 1,800 theaters Friday, Battle of the Year from Sony should average $3,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening three-day weekend). No early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Battle of the Year should be on track for $16 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 20-22, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Prisoners | WB | R | 81% | 18.5 | 61 | |
| Battle of the Year | Sony | PG13 | n/a | 6.5 | 16 | |
Insidious Chapter will be the op holdover and the only one north of $10 million this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS September 20-22, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Insidious Chapter 2 | FilmDis | -62% | 15.5 | 86 | |
| The Family | Rel | -50% | 7.1 | 39 | |
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | -30% | 3.9 | 115 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | -30% | 3.8 | 149 | |
| Instructions Not Included | LG/Sum | -35% | 3.2 | 41 | |
| Riddick | Uni | -54% | 3.2 | 43 | |
| Planes | Dis | -26% | 2.3 | 89 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $89 million total, ranking 46th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $75 million (while 2011 was $106 million and 2010 was $91 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a sub-par $71 million, down 19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 5% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.21.2012
Trouble with the Curve WB PG13 Clint Eastwood Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
House at the End of the Street REL PG13 Jennifer Lawrence Elizabeth Shue
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
End of Watch OPENROAD R Jake Gyllenhaal Michael Pena
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
Dredd 3D LG R Karl Urban Olivia Thirlby
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
The Master WEINS R Joaquin Phoenix Philip Seymour Hoffman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
9.23.2011
Moneyball SONY PG13 Brad Pitt Jonah Hill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $73 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
Dolphin Tale WB PG Harry Connick Jr Ashley Judd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $75 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
Abduction LG PG13 Taylor Lautner Lily Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $28
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $54
Killer Elite OPENROAD R Jason Statham Clive Owen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $31
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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