WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS: Strong Possibility of Another Up Weekend

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Another up weekend at the box office is on store, led by an eclectic assortment of films. 

 
                                              (millions)
New Films                        Critics   Opening   Domestic
April 22-24                      Positive  Weekend    Total*
.
Madea’s Big Happy Family LG  PG13   n/a      $31       $ 67
Water for Elephants     Fox  PG13   n/a      $16       $ 38
African Cats            Dis  G      70%      $ 7       $ 21

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Tyler Perry Film Track

Tyler Perry films has a faithful audience that shows up the first weekend.  His movies generally open with $20 million or more, with Madea films usually doing better than the others.  His best opening was $41 million for Madea Goes to Jail.  But Perry’s audience is highly concentrated in the first week or two.  The final grosses for Tyler Perry movies are usually about two times the opening weekend number, far lower than the average 2.5 or 3.0 opening weekend multiple.  His fan base is highly motivated but limited in scope.

Tyler Perry Films                             (millions)
(all titles preceded            Release    Opening   Domestic
 by “Tyler Perry’s”)             Date      Weekend    Total

Why Did I Get Married Too?       4.2.2010    $29       $60
I Can Do Bad All By Myself      9.11.2009    $23       $52
Madea Goes to Jail              2.20.2009    $41       $90
The Family That Preys           9.12.2008    $17       $37
Meet the Browns                 3.21.2008    $20       $42
Why Did I Get Married?         10.12.2007    $21       $55
Daddy’s Little Girls            2.14.2007    $11       $33
Madea’s Family Reunion          2.24.2006    $30       $63
Diary of a Mad Black Woman      2.25.2005    $22       $51

Rio will have a very good second weekend and a relatively small decline versus the opening weekend number.  If Madea stumbles, Rio could sneak into first place.  Assisted by Easter weekend, Hop should have a very low weekend decline and come close to staying in double digits this weekend (in millions of dollars). 

                                vs wknd 1  Weekend  Ultimate


Rio                    Fox        -33%      $26       $141
Hop                    Uni        -16%      $ 9       $108
Scre4m               Weins        -55%      $ 8.5     $ 51

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $84 million total, ranking 48th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $90 million, and April 24-26, 2009 was $104 million.  This weekend is looking like $120 million: the second up weekend in a row (but only the third up weekend so far this year).