Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #34 of 2015 now looks like $92 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for this weekend (thanks mostly to Straight Outta Compton and definitely not the three openers) but below the same weekend last year (see track below).
Opening at 2,766 theaters Friday, Sinister 2 from Focus/Universal is on track for a $10.6 million opening three-day weekend (below our $15.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a bad $3,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite weak (13% positive overall and 18% positive with top critics). Sinister 2 is headed for $20 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,261 theaters Friday, Hitman: Agent 47 from Warner Brothers is on track for a $8.2 million opening three-day weekend (better than it looked yesterday but still below our $10.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a horrible $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is awful (7% positive overall and 9% positive with top critics). Hitman: Agent 47 is headed for $12 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,778 theaters Friday, American Ultra from Lionsgate is on track for a $5.5 million opening three-day weekend (below our $9.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a dreadful $2,000 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (46% positive overall and 42% positive with top critics). American Ultra is headed for $9 million total domestic.
| Weekend 34: August 21-23, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [31.5] | 27.8 | 26.8 | 8.3/ 10.6 | 179 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [11.0] | 11.7 | 11.7 | 3.3/ 5.0 | 191 | |
| Sinister 2 | Foc | [15.5] | 10.5 | 10.6 | 4.7/ 3.6 | 20 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | [10.5] | 7.5 | 8.2 | 3.1/ 2.9 | 12 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [6.7] | 7.6 | 7.4 | 2.2/ 3.1 | 46 | |
| American Ultra | LG | [9.5] | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.1/ 1.9 | 9 | |
| The Gift | STX | [3.6] | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3/ 1.8 | 44 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [3.5] | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.2/ 1.8 | 178 | |
| Minions | Uni | [3.3] | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.1/ 1.6 | 331 | |
| Fantastic Four | Fox | [3.8] | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.1/ 1.6 | 53 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Straight Outta Compton is headed for $26.8 million this weekend (down -56% from last weekend and slightly below our $31.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $179 million.
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $11.7 million this weekend (down -32% from last weekend and near our $11.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $191 million.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is headed for $7.4 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and above our $6.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $46 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $92 million total Friday-Sunday, up +5% from the average for the comparable weekend but down -10% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 34 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $92 | Sinister 2 $10.6, Hitman: Agent 47 $8.2, American Ultra $5.5 | |
| 2014 | $102 | If I Stay $15.7, When the Game Stands Tall $8.4, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For $6.3 | |
| 2013 | $90 | Mortal Instruments: City of Bones $9.3, The World’s End $8.8, You’re Next $7.0 | |
| 2012 | $83 | 2016: Obama’s America $6.5, Premium Rush $6.0, Hit and Run $4.5 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $87 | ||
Check later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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