April 7, 2013


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #14 of 2013 is looking a little weaker than it appeared yesterday but still ahead of prior years.  The top 12 films are looking like $127 million this weekend, now 10% above the same weekend in recent years.  Two decent openers and two strong returning films dominate the top of the weekend ranking.

Opening at 3,025 theaters Friday, Evil Dead from Sony grossed $11.9 million Friday but only $8.8 million Saturday (a typical horror film pattern) and is on track for a $26 million opening three-day weekend (just about equal to the $26.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a good $8,600 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is relatively strong for a horror film: 65% positive at RottenTomatoes.  Evil Dead is headed for $73 million total domestic. 

Opening at 2,771 theaters Friday, Jurassic Park 3D from Universal grossed $7 million Friday and $7.1 million Saturday and is on pace for an $18.2 million opening weekend (a bit above the $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $6,600 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are unanimously supportive of this 3D conversion: 91% positive reviews.  Jurassic Park 3D should finish with $56 million total domestic.

Weekend 14 April 5-7, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimates Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Evil Dead Sony [26.5] 27.2 26.0 11.9–8.8 73
The Croods DW/Fox [18.5] 24.3 21.1 6.0–8.8 186
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par [20.2] 20.6 21.1 6.4–8.9 138
Jurassic Park 3D Uni [17.5] 18.6 18.2 7.0–7.1 56
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis [7.8] 10.3 10.0 3.1–4.3 94
Tyler Perry’s Temptation LG [9.3] 10.8 10.0 3.4–4.4 58
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [6.9] 9.4 8.2 2.4–3.4 240
The Host OpenRoad [5.0] 5.8 5.2 1.8–2.2 25
The Call Sony [2.7] 3.7 3.5 1.1–1.5 53
Admission Focus [1.8] 2.1 2.0 .66–.86 19
Spring Breakers A24 1.3 1.2 .40–n/a 19
Identity Thief WB 0.8 .82 .25–.36 135

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $127 million total Friday-Sunday, down from the $135 million estimate yesterday but still up 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 9% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #14 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $127 Evil Dead $26, Jurassic Park 3D $18
2012 $117 American Reunion $21, Titanic 3D $17
2011 $103 Hanna $12, Arthur $12, Soul Surfer $10, Your Highness $9
2010 $119 Date Night $25
2009 $126 Hannah Montana $32, Observe and Report $11, Dragonball Evolution $5
Avg 2009-12 $116

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.