Weekend Studio Estimates DECEMBER 27-29

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Based on Friday’s grosses, the final weekend of 2013 looks like a great finish: $186 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down a touch from yesterday’s estimate but still up significantly from the same weekend last year (see comparisons to previous years at the bottom).  The new films this long weekend are actually not breaking through in a big way: it’s the holdovers that have hit the afterburner.  

Opening at 2,537 theaters Wednesday, The Wolf of Wall Street from Paramount grossed $15.8 million before Friday ($9.2 Wednesday and $6.6 million Thursday) and then $6.3 million Friday and $6.8 million Saturday, now putting the Martin Scorsese picture on track for a $18.5 million opening three-day weekend (below our $24.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $7,300 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Through Sunday, The Wolf of Wall Street should total $34 million. Critical sentiment is positive but certainly not universal (77% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 69% positive with top critics). Wolf of Wall Street is headed for $116 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,909 theaters Wednesday, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty from Fox grossed $12.6 million before Friday ($7.8 Wednesday and $4.8 million Thursday) and another $4.5 million Friday and $4.8 million Saturday, now putting the Ben Stiller film on track for a $13.0 million opening weekend (slightly below our $15.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft average of $4,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is slightly negative (only 47% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 42% positive with top critics). Secret Life of Walter Mitty is headed for $74 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,689 theaters Wednesday, 47 Ronin from Universal grossed $10.7 million before Friday ($7.0 Wednesday and $3.7 million Thursday) and another $3.5 million Friday and $3.6 million Saturday, pushing the film on pace for a $9.9 million opening weekend (still at our $10.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a low three-day average of $3,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is brutal (12% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 0% positive with top critics). 47 Ronin is headed for $54 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,838 theaters Wednesday, Grudge Match from Warner Brothers grossed $6.1 million before Friday ($3.9 Wednesday and $2.2 million Thursday) and a pretty bad $2.4 million Friday and $2.7 million Saturday, placing the film on track for a $7.3 million opening weekend (way below our $13.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a woeful three-day average of $2,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is dismissive (20% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 0% positive with top critics). Grudge Match is headed for maybe $48 million total domestic.

Expanding to 975 theaters Wednesday, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom from The Weinstein Company grossed $2.3 million before Friday ($1.25 million Wednesday and $0.75 million Thursday and  $0.30 million in limited release before Christmas) and another $0.80 million Friday and $0.90 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $2.4 million first wide weekend (well below our $5.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a woeful three-day average of $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mixed (55% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 48% positive with top critics). Mandela is headed for maybe $22 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,037 theaters Wednesday, Justin Bieber’s Believe from Open Road Films grossed $2.3 million before Friday ($1.25 million Wednesday and $1.0 million Thursday) and $0.79 million Friday and an even worse $0.68 million Saturday, putting the music documentary on track for a $2.0 million opening weekend (just “a bit” below our $7.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a woeful three-day average of $1,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is actually mixed among a small sample size (56% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 57% positive with top critics). Believe is headed for maybe $12 million total domestic.

The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug and Frozen 3D are fighting for the top spot, each just below $30 million weekend (and both way above our conservative forecasts).  And then Anchorman 2 and American Hustle are both very close to the $20 million level for the weekend.  All four films’ final domestic projections have been upgraded.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Total Box Office Volume