March 2, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates FEB 28-MAR 2

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #9 of 2014 looks like $110 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat better than we forecast Wednesday ($100 million) but 18% below the average for this weekend.

Opening at 3,090 theaters Friday, Non-Stop from Universal grossed $10.1 million Friday and $12.4 million Saturday, keeping the film on track for a $30.0 million opening weekend (slightly above our $27.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,700 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mildly positive (58% positive overall and 61% positive with top critics). Non-Stop is still headed for $89 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,256 theaters Friday, Son of God from Fox grossed $9.4 million Friday and an unimpressive $9.3 million Saturday, reducing the film to a track toward a $26.5 million opening weekend (lower than yesterday but still above our $19.5 million forecast). The film, much of it repurposed footage from The Bible mini-series on History channel, is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (26% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and only 15% positive with top critics). Son of God is now headed for around $72 million total domestic.

Weekend 9: Feb 28-Mar 2, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Non-Stop Uni [27.5] 30.0 30.0 10.1–12.4 89
Son of God Fox [19.5] 28.7 26.5 9.4–9.3 72
The Lego Movie WB [21.4] 19.1 21.0 4.4–10.4 265
The Monuments Men Sony [4.4] 5.1 5.0 1.4–2.4 79
3 Days to Kill Rel [6.0] 4.9 4.9 1.4–2.3 29
RoboCop Sony [4.8] 4.2 4.5 1.1–2.1 61
Pompeii Sony [4.3] 4.0 4.3 1.2–2.0 25
Frozen 3D Dis [3.2] 3.0 3.6 .72–1.8 395
About Last Night Sony [4.2] 3.4 3.4 1.0–1.6 49
Ride Along Uni [2.7] 3.0 3.1 .88–1.5 138

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total Friday-Sunday, down 28% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 18% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 9 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $110 Non-Stop $30.0, Son of God $26.5
2013 $93 Jack the Giant Slayer $27.2, 21 and Over $8.8, Last Exorcism $7.7
2012 $152 Dr Seuss’ The Lorax $70.2, Project X $21.1
2011 $121 Rango $38.1, Adjustment Bureau $21.2, Beastly $9.9, Take Me Home Tonight $3.5
2010 $186 Alice in Wonderland $116.1, Brooklyn’s Finest $13.4
Avg 2010-13 $153

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.