February 17, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #7 of 2013 is looking a touch better than yesterday: now $126 million for the top 12 films during the traditional Friday-Sunday period of this holiday weekend (only 2% behind the pace for the same weekend the last few years).        

A Good Day to Die Hard from 20th Century Fox is now on track for a $25 million opening weekend and should finish with $78 million total domestic (nowhere near the $134.5 million for Die Hard with a Vengeance, the last Die Hard film in June 2007).

Safe Haven from Relativity is now on track for a $21 million opening Friday-Sunday weekend and is headed for $68 million total domestic. 

Escape from Planet Earth from Weinstein Company is now on track for a $16 million opening weekend and is headed for $67 million total domestic.

Beautiful Creatures from Warner Brothers is on track for a $7.5 million weekend and is headed for $19 million total domestic.

Weekend 7: February 15-17, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox [32.6] 23.5 25.0 7.2–10.2 78
Identity Thief Uni [17.5] 22.5 23.4 6.5–10.0 130
Safe Haven Rel [19.6] 22.0 21.4 7.2–8.4 68
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [13.5] 15.0 16.1 3.7–6.7 67
Warm Bodies Summit [6.2] 9.0 9.0 2.6–3.6 73
Beautiful Creatures WB [11.6] 7.8 7.5 2.3–3.0 19
Side Effects OpenRoad [5.0] 6.2 6.3 1.7–2.6 38
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [5.1] 6.3 6.1 1.4–2.6 120
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters Par [2.9] 3.4 3.5 .87–1.49 56
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [—] 3.1 .67–1.29 98
Mama Uni [2.2] 2.7 2.8 .76–1.2 75

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $126 million total Friday-Sunday, up a bit from yesterday and now down only 2% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 12% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #7 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $126 Good Day Die Hard $25, Safe Haven $21, Escape from Planet Earth $16
2012 $143 Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance $22, This Means War $17
2011 $130 Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas $16
2010 $122 Shutter Island $41
2009 $120 Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5
Avg 2009-12 $129

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.