February 5, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $96 million for the weekend, up a very strong 31% from last year’s disaster weekend but down a touch (-3%) from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  Chronicle appears posed to edge The Woman in Black for the top spot.  On Friday, Chronicle edged Woman in Black by over $300,000 ($8.625 million to $8.300 million), and on Saturday Chronicle beat Woman in Black by almost $700,000 ($10.200 million to $9.545 million).  Today with the Super Bowl being the main distraction both movies should do about the same low level of business ($3.175 million to $3.155 million).  Chronicle should beat Woman in Black by about $1 million ($22.0 to $21.0 million).  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Chronicle ($65 million), The Woman in Black ($58 million) and Big Miracle ($30 million). 

The second week movies have been adjusted:  The Grey ($59 million, down slightly), One for the Money ($27 million, steady), Man on a Ledge ($23 million, steady).  In its second wide-release week, The Artist ($32 million) has been adjusted downward.

Among the third week films, Underworld Awakening ($67 million, adjusted back down), Red Tails ($53 million, adjusted back down) and Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close ($36 million, steady). 

February 3-5                        Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Chronicle                 (Fox)     $22.0             $ 65
The Woman in Black        (CBS)     $21.0             $ 58
The Grey            (Open Road)     $ 9.5   -52%      $ 59
Big Miracle               (Uni)     $ 8.5             $ 30
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $ 5.6   -55%      $ 67
One for the Money          (LG)     $ 5.2   -54%      $ 27
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $ 5.0   -52%      $ 53
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 4.6   -28     $ 78
Man on a Ledge            (Sum)     $ 4.5   -44%      $ 23
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB)     $ 3.9   -44%      $ 36
Contraband                (Uni)     $ 3.5   -48%      $ 71
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 2.6   -23%      $ 32

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $96 million total Friday-Sunday, up 31% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 3% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  The box office is certainly not as sick as it was last year, but remember these numbers are not anything to get too excited about.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #5

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 96  Chronicle $22, Woman in Black $21, Big Miracle $8

2011  $ 73  The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010  $100  Dear John $30, From Paris with Love $8
2009  $131  He’s Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17

2008  $ 90  Fool’s Gold $22, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins $16

Avg   $ 99

Next Weekend 

Next weekend, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island from Warner Brothers, action thriller Safe House from Universal and the romantic drama The Vow from Sony open wide.  Also, 20th Century Fox will re-release Star Wars: Episode 1 The Phantom Menace in 3D.  These openings will be compared to Just Go With It ($30.5 million opening weekend), Justin Bieber: Never Say Never ($29.5 million), Gnomeo and Juliet ($25.4 million) and The Eagle ($8.7 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.