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February 24, 2013
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 22-24

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #8 of 2013 is looking a little stronger than it did yesterday but still down versus previous years.  The top 12 films Friday-Sunday should total $89 million (down 22% from the same weekend last year and down 11% from the average for the weekend the last few years).  Snitch had a nice uptick Saturday, but so did Identity Thief, which maintained its first place position.        

Weekend 8: February 22-24, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Identity Thief Uni [13.3] 13.4 14.1 4.1–6.7 134
Snitch Summit [13.7] 12.0 13.0 4.1–5.6 40
Safe Haven Rel [10.6] 10.9 10.6 3.5–4.7 71
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [10.6] 10.4 11.0 2.4–5.2 62
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox [12.0] 9.2 10.0 2.8–4.7 72
Dark Skies Weins [10.8] 8.5 8.8 3.1–3.5 19
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [5.2] 4.6 6.1 1.5–2.9 120
Warm Bodies Summit [5.3] 3.4 4.8 1.4–1.6 71
Side Effects OpenRoad [3.5] 3.2 3.5 1.0–1.6 37
Beautiful Creatures WB [3.9] 2.2 3.4 1.0–1.6 23

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $89 million total Friday-Sunday, up a bit from yesterday’s estimate but still down 11% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 22% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #8 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $89 Snitch $13, Dark Skies $9
2012 $114 Act of Valor $24, Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds $15, Wanderlust $6, Gone $4
2011 $96 Hall Pass $13, Drive Angry 3D $5
2010 $107 Cop Out $18, The Crazies $16
2009 $87 Jonas Brothers: 3D Concert Experience $12, Street Fighter $4
Avg 2009-12 $101

Check back later for the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.