February 9, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates FEBRUARY 7-9

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #6 of 2014 now looks like $139 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a better outlook than yesterday but still 16% behind the usual pace for this weekend.  The Lego Movie is a huge hit, but the rest of the box office is providing little support.

Opening at 3,775 theaters Friday, The Lego Movie from Warner Brothers grossed a big $17.1 million Friday and a fantastic $30.9 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a terrific $69.1 million opening weekend (well above our $48.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a stunning three-day average of $18,300 per theater for the weekend (3.5 times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is full of love (96% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 97% positive with top critics). The Lego Movie is headed for $285 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,083 theaters Friday, The Monuments Men from Sony grossed $6.9 million Friday and $9.6 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $22.7 million opening weekend (above our $19.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent three-day average of $7,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment however is not supportive (33% positive overall and also 33% positive with top critics). The Monuments Men is headed for around $63 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,676 theaters Friday, Vampire Academy from The Weinstein Company grossed a diminutive $1.4 million Friday and a threadbare $1.6 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a weak $4.1 million opening weekend (well below our very modest $8.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a truly awful three-day average of $1,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (11% positive overall with a small number of reviews). Vampire Academy is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $5.5 million total domestic.

Opening in very limited release, Kids for Cash will average a decent $10,200 per theater at 4 theaters.  Meanwhile, A Field in England will finish its opening weekend with a disastrous $500 per theater weekend average at 10 theaters.

Weekend 6: February 7-9, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Lego Movie WB [48.5] 67.0 69.1 17.1–30.9 285
The Monuments Men Sony [19.0] 21.0 22.7 6.9–9.6 63
Ride Along Uni [7.5] 9.0 9.4 2.6–4.7 124
Frozen 3D Dis [5.7] 6.0 6.9 1.4–3.3 370
That Awkward Moment Foc [4.3] 5.2 5.5 1.7–2.3 28
Lone Survivor Uni [4.6] 5.0 5.3 1.4–2.7 128
Vampire Academy Weins [8.5] 3.8 4.1 1.4–1.6 5
The Nut Job OpenR [3.7] 3.3 3.8 .72–1.9 63
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par [3.4] 3.3 3.6 .92–1.7 52
Labor Day Par [3.0] 3.2 3.2 .91–1.5 16
American Hustle Sony [—] 3.1 .75–1.5 152
Wolf of Wall Street Par [—] 2.6 .64–1.2 117

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $139 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($132 million) and now down 16% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 62% from the same weekend last year (which was a true disaster).

WEEKEND 6 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $139 Lego Movie $69.1, Monuments Men $22.7, Vampire Academy $4.1
2013 $86 Identity Thief $34.6, Side Effects $9.3
2012 $173 The Vow $41.2, Safe House $40.2, Journey 2: Mysterious Island $27.3, Star Wars 3D $22.5
2011 $135 Just Go With It $30.5, Gnomeo and Juliet $25.4, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never $29.5
2010 $189 Valentine’s Day $56.3, Percy Jackson & The Olympians $31.5, The Wolfman $31.2
Avg 2010-13 $166

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.