February 2, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates JAN 31-FEB 2

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #5 of 2014 now looks like $72 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, even worse than the usual pace for a Super Bowl weekend and two million dollars below yesterday’s estimate.

Opening at 2,809 theaters Friday, That Awkward Moment from Focus/Universal grossed a small $3.9 million Friday and a weak $3.8 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $9.0 million opening weekend (below our $12.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend (below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is not kind (23% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and an even worse 12% positive with top critics). That Awkward Moment is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $23 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,584 theaters Friday, Labor Day from Paramount grossed a diminutive $1.9 million Friday and $2.4 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $5.3 million opening weekend (near our $5.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a truly awful three-day average of $2,050 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (32% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics). Labor Day is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $9 million total domestic.

Ride Along remains at the top of the chart but its final domestic total forecast has been adjusted to $120 million.

In limited release, Tim’s Vermeer from Sony Pictures Classics opened with a $14,468 weekend average at 4 theaters.  In contrast, 12 O’Clock Boys from Oscilloscope opened with a weak $2,452 average at 21 theaters.

Weekend 5: January 24-26, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ride Along Uni [11.5] 12.0 12.3 4.0-6.5 120
Frozen 3D Dis [8.5] 9.5 9.3 2.2-4.6 370
That Awkward Moment Foc [12.5] 10.0 9.0 3.9-3.8 23
The Nut Job OpenR [7.6] 8.0 7.6 1.8-3.9 65
Lone Survivor Uni [6.9] 7.0 7.2 2.3-3.9 126
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par [4.7] 5.4 5.4 1.8-2.8 52
Labor Day Par [5.5] 5.5 5.3 1.9-2.4 9
American Hustle Sony [4.7] 4.2 4.3 1.3-2.3 152
The Wolf of Wall Street Par [3.5] 3.4 3.6 1.1-1.8 117
I, Frankenstein LG/Sum [2.9] 3.3 3.5 1.1-1.8 15
August: Osage County Weins [3.2] 2.9 2.9 .92-1.5 40

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an unexceptional $72 million total Friday-Sunday, down 19% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 5% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 5 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $72 That Awkward Moment $9.0, Labor Day $5.3
2013 $69 Warm Bodies $19.8, Bullet to the Head $4.5
2012 $94 Chronicle $22.0, Woman in Black $20.9, Big Miracle $7.8
2011 $73 The Roommate $15.0, Sanctum $9.4
2010 $100 Dear John $20.5, From Paris with Love $8.2
Avg 2010-13 $89

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.