May 3, 2015

Weekend Studio Estimates 5.1-3.2015

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #18 of 2015 now looks like $221 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s estimate ($249 million) but still above the norm for this weekend as summer gets going early.  Saturday was fairly soft at the box office because of a huge day in TV sports anchored by the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight and the Kentucky Derby.  Avengers: Age of Ultron, along with everything else playing this weekend, has been revised downward, but Age of Ultron is nonetheless on track to be the second biggest three-day opening of all time.

Opening at, 4,276 theaters Friday, Avengers: Age of Ultron from Marvel and Disney is on track for a $187.7 million opening three-day weekend (now below our $220.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week and now headed for the #2 three-day opening of all time, behind $207.4 million for Marvel’s The Avengers May 4-6, 2012 but ahead of #3 Iron Man 3 with $174.1 million May 3-5, 2013). The film is pacing toward a still-huge $43,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very positive (75% positive overall and 73% positive with top critics).  Age of Ultron is headed for $540 million total domestic.

For comparisons to previous Marvel films check out our forecast from earlier this week.

Weekend 18: May 1-3, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri/ Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Avengers: Age of Ultron Dis [220.0] 210.0 187.7 84.5/ 57.2 540
Age of Adaline LG [7.0] 6.9 6.3 2.2/2.4 38
Furious 7 Uni [8.2] 7.3 6.1 2.2/ 2.6 348
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 Sony [7.9] 7.2 5.6 1.8/ 2.5 64
Home Fox/DWA [4.7] 3.5 3.3 .87/ 1.6 161
Cinderella Dis [n/a] 3.2 2.4 .81/ 1.1 198
Ex Machina A24 [2.8] 2.1 2.2 .72/ .85 16
Unfriended Uni [2.7] 2.3 2.0 .79/ .81 33
The Longest Ride Fox [2.3] 1.9 1.7 .61/ .71 36
Woman in Gold Weins [2.1] 1.8 1.7 .48/ .71 31
Monkey Kingdom Dis [n/a] 1.4 1.2 .39/ .42 21
Get Hard WB [1.9] 1.2 1.2 n/a 89

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Age of Adaline is headed for $6.3 million this weekend (down -53% from last weekend and slightly below our $7.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $38 million.

Furious 7 is headed for $6.1 million this weekend (down -66% from last weekend and below our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $348 million.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is headed for $5.6 million this weekend (down -62% from last weekend and below our $7.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $64 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $221 million total Friday-Sunday, up +16% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +53% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 18 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $221 Avengers Age of Ultron $187.7
2014 $145 Amazing Spider-Man 2 $91.6
2013 $211 Iron Man 3 $174.1
2012 $250 Marvel’s The Avengers $207.4
2011 $155 Thor $65.7, Jumping the Broom $15.2, Something Borrowed $13.9
Avg 2011-14 $190

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.