>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $112 million for the weekend, up fully 26% from last year’s disaster weekend and in the ballpark (-4%) from the weekend’s average for the past four years. Underworld Awakening is now looking like it will gross more than $25 million in its opening weekend, and Red Tails over $19 million. (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)
The second week movies include Beauty and the Beast 3D ($57 million) which has been adjusted down sharply and Contraband ($76 million) which has been adjusted up slightly. Joyful Noise ($35 million) and The Iron Lady ($22 million) are relatively steady.
The Devil Inside ($47 million) has been adjusted down again, while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ($27 million) is steady in its third week of wide release.
Not shown on the chart below, The Artist grossed $2.37 million this weekend at an expanded 662 theaters (for a lame $3,579 per theater). But the film is gathering a head of steam for a Best Picture Oscar with a Golden Globe win and more importantly a Producer’s Guild victory last night. ABC has to be worried about ratings for its Academy Awards telecast if a very small film ($12.1 million total gross to date) with little serious competition cruises to victory.
January 20-22 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Underworld Awakening (Sony) $25.4 $ 64
Red Tails (Fox) $19.1 $ 53
Contraband (Uni) $12.2 -50% $ 76
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB) $10.5 $ 33
Haywire (Rel) $ 9.0 $ 27
Beauty and the Beast 3D (Dis) $ 8.6 -52% $ 57–
Joyful Noise (WB) $ 6.1 -46% $ 35
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $ 5.5 -53% $217
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $ 4.8 -44% $190
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $ 3.8 -44% $110
The Iron Lady (Weins) $ 3.7 -32% $ 22
War Horse (DW/Dis) $ 3.0 -49% $ 87
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $112 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a small 4% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #3
2012 $112 Underworld Awakening $25, Red Tails $19, Ext Loud $10
2011 $ 89 No Strings Attached $20
2010 $128 Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009 $130 Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008 $118 Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11
2008-11
Avg $116
About the Author
