January 8, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The Devil Inside looks like a $34-35 million opening weekend based on studio estimates (Friday and Saturday actual results with estimates for Sunday).  The top 12 films combined total this weekend has been reduced to $128 million, still 7% ahead of the typical total for the comparable weekend in past years and 30% above the very low total for this weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: The Devil Inside ($66 million) and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy ($32 million).

The Christmas weekend movies are settling into a fairly consistent set of final gross estimates: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($109 million), War Horse ($84 million), Adventures of Tintin ($82 million), We Bought a Zoo ($79 million) and The Darkest Hour ($25 million).

In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million) and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($132 million) are even with last week’s final domestic gross estimates, while Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol ($235 million) has been adjusted up slightly again.

January 6-8                         Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Devil Inside          (Par)     $34.5             $ 66
Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $20.5   -30%      $235
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $14.1   -33%      $190
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $11.4   -23%      $109
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $ 9.5   -42%      $132
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $ 8.6   -40%      $ 84
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $ 8.5   -36%      $ 79
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $ 6.6   -42%      $ 82
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (Foc)     $ 5.8   +431%     $ 32
New Year’s Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 3.3   -48%      $ 59
Darkest Hour              (Sum)     $ 3.1   -25%      $ 25
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 2.6   -24%      $ 52 

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7
Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $128 million total Friday-Sunday, up 30% from the same calendar weekend last year (which kicked off the disastrous winter and spring of 2011) and up 7% from the typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #1

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $128  Devil Inside $34.5, Tinker Tailor $5.8

2011  $ 99  Season of the Witch $10, Country Strong $7 
2010  $149  Daybreakers $15, Leap Year $9, Youth in Revolt $7
2009  $128  Gran Torino $29, Bride Wars $21, The Unborn $20

2008  $106  Bucket List $19, First Sunday $18

Avg   $120

Next Weekend 
Next weekend, Contraband from Universal and Joyful Noise from Warner Brothers open wide, while Beauty and the Beast is re-released by Disney in 3D.  These openings will be compared to Green Hornet ($33.5 million opening weekend) and The Dilemma ($17.8 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.