January 29, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in somewhat stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $99 million for the weekend, up a modest 7% from last year’s disaster weekend but downa touch (-3%) from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  The Grey had a good Saturday and now is on track to hit $20 million in its opening weekend.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for: The Grey ($64 million), One for the Money ($26 million), Man on a Ledge ($20 million).  Expanding critical-favorite The Artist ($40 million).

Among the second week films, Underworld Awakening ($71 million, adjusted up), Red Tails ($57 million, adjusted up slightly), Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close ($39 million, upward adjustment) and Haywire ($27 million, steady). 

The third week movies include Beauty and the Beast 3D ($54 million, adjusted down slightly) and Contraband ($72 million, down a touch), Joyful Noise ($32 million, down slightly) and The Iron Lady ($26 million, up slightly).

January 27-29                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

The Grey            (Open Road)     $20.0             $ 64
Underworld Awakening     (Sony)     $12.5   -51%      $ 71
One for the Money          (LG)     $11.7             $ 26
Red Tails                 (Fox)     $10.4   -45%      $ 57
Man on a Ledge            (Sum)     $ 8.2             $ 20
Extremely Loud & Inc Close (WB)     $ 7.1   -29%      $ 39
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 6.6   +176%     $ 70
Contraband                (Uni)     $ 6.5   -46%      $ 72
Beauty and the Beast 3D   (Dis)     $ 5.3   -39%      $ 54
Haywire                   (Rel)     $ 4.0   -53%      $ 27
The Artist               (Wein)     $ 3.3   +40%      $ 40
Joyful Noise               (WB)     $ 3.2   -45%      $ 32
The Iron Lady           (Weins)     $ 3.2   -13%      $ 26

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $99 million total Friday-Sunday, up 7% from the same calendar weekend last year but down a small 3% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #4

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $ 99  The Grey $20, One for the Money $12, Man Ledge $8

2011  $ 92  The Rite $15, Sanctum $9  
2010  $110  Edge of Darkness $17, When in Rome $12
2009  $103  Taken $25, The Uninvented $10, New in Town $7

2008  $102  Hannah Montana $31, The Eye $12

Avg   $102

Next Weekend 

Next weekend, “found footage” drama Chronicle from 20th Century Fox, horror thriller The Woman in Black from CBS Films and the whale-rescue drama Big Miracle from Universal open wide.  These openings will be compared to The Roommate ($15.0 million opening weekend) and Sanctum ($9.4 million) from the same weekend in 2011.  

Look for final weekend figures Monday and international results later today


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.