Before next weekend’s arrival of a bona fide hit, The Dark Knight Rises, this weekend was highlighted by a bit of a summer movie poser: Ice Age: Continental Drift (an estimated $46.0 million opening weekend, missing our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions), looking less like a summer movie that should be given a weekend to itself and more like a strong spring entry (where this franchise started and where Ice Age 5 should retreat to). Down a very credible 44% in its second weekend, Amazing Spider-Man has been upgraded above $300 million domestic.
The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $152 million for the weekend, down substantially from comparable weekend in previous years.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Ice Age: Continental Drift ($177 million initial estimate).
Second week films: The Amazing Spider-Man ($302 million, up from $289 million last week), Savages ($53 million, up slightly from last week) and Katy Perry: Part of Me ($30 million, up from last week).
Third week films: Ted ($224 million, up for the second week in a row), Magic Mike ($118 million, a slight rebound from last week), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($65 million, even with last week) and People Like Us ($15 million, similar to the last few weeks).
Fourth week films: Brave ($234 million, down slightly from last week) and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($37 million, even with last week).
| Weekend 28: July 13-15, 2012 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | 46.0 | 177 | ||
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | -44% | 35.0 | 302 | |
| Ted | Uni | -31% | 22.1 | 224 | |
| Brave | Dis | -45% | 10.7 | 234 | |
| Magic Mike | WB | -42% | 9.0 | 118 | |
| Savages | Uni | -45% | 8.7 | 53 | |
| TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | -45% | 5.6 | 65 | |
| Katy Perry: Part of Me | Par | -48% | 3.7 | 30 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | -19% | 3.7 | 47 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -53% | 3.5 | 216 | |
| To Rome with Love | Uni | -18% | 2.5 | 14 | |
| ICE AGE series track(20th Century Fox) | (millions dollars) | |||||
| Critics% Pos | Release | OpeningWeekend | DomesticTotal | OverseasTotal | WorldwideTotal | |
| Ice Age | 77% | 3.15.2002 | $46.3 | $176 | $207 | $383 |
| Ice Age: Meltdown | 57% | 3.31.2006 | $68.0 | $195 | $460 | $655 |
| Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs | 45% | 7.1.2009 | $41.7 | $197 | $690 | $887 |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | 40% | 7.13.2012 | $46.0-est | $177-est | ||
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total Friday-Sunday, down 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 40% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #28 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $152 | Ice Age Continental Drift $46 | |
| 2011 | $252 | Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 2 $169 | |
| 2010 | $171 | Inception $63, Sorcerer’s Apprentice $18 | |
| 2009 | $152 | Harry Potter Half-Blood Prince $78 | |
| 2008 | $254 | Dark Knight $158, Mamma Mia! $28 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $207 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend is The Dark Knight Rises from Warner Brothers. This film will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Captain America ($65.1 million opening weekend) and Friends with Benefits ($18.6 million).
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
About the Author
