July 15, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES July 13-15: A Bit of a Slowdown Before the Dark Knight Next Week

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Before next weekend’s arrival of a bona fide hit, The Dark Knight Rises, this weekend was highlighted by a bit of a summer movie poser: Ice Age: Continental Drift (an estimated $46.0 million opening weekend, missing our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions), looking less like a summer movie that should be given a weekend to itself and more like a strong spring entry (where this franchise started and where Ice Age 5 should retreat to).     Down a very credible 44% in its second weekend, Amazing Spider-Man has been upgraded above $300 million domestic.

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $152 million for the weekend, down substantially from comparable weekend in previous years.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Ice Age: Continental Drift ($177 million initial estimate).

Second week films: The Amazing Spider-Man ($302 million, up from $289 million last week), Savages ($53 million, up slightly from last week) and Katy Perry: Part of Me ($30 million, up from last week).

Third week films: Ted ($224 million, up for the second week in a row), Magic Mike ($118 million, a slight rebound from last week), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($65 million, even with last week) and People Like Us ($15 million, similar to the last few weeks).

Fourth week films: Brave ($234 million, down slightly from last week) and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($37 million, even with last week).


Weekend 28: July 13-15, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox 46.0 177
Amazing Spider-Man Sony -44% 35.0 302
Ted Uni -31% 22.1 224
Brave Dis -45% 10.7 234
Magic Mike WB -42% 9.0 118
Savages Uni -45% 8.7 53
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG -45% 5.6 65
Katy Perry: Part of Me Par -48% 3.7 30
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni -19% 3.7 47
Madagascar 3 Par DW -53% 3.5 216
To Rome with Love Uni -18% 2.5 14


ICE AGE series track(20th Century Fox) (millions dollars)
Critics% Pos Release OpeningWeekend DomesticTotal OverseasTotal WorldwideTotal
Ice Age 77% 3.15.2002 $46.3 $176 $207 $383
Ice Age: Meltdown 57% 3.31.2006 $68.0 $195 $460 $655
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 45% 7.1.2009 $41.7 $197 $690 $887
Ice Age: Continental Drift 40% 7.13.2012 $46.0-est  $177-est

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total Friday-Sunday, down 27% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 40% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #28 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $152 Ice Age Continental Drift $46
2011 $252 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 2 $169
2010 $171 Inception $63, Sorcerer’s Apprentice $18
2009 $152 Harry Potter Half-Blood Prince $78
2008 $254 Dark Knight $158, Mamma Mia! $28
Avg 2008-11 $207

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend is The Dark Knight Rises from Warner Brothers.  This film will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Captain America ($65.1 million opening weekend) and Friends with Benefits ($18.6 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.