July 17, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened with a record  $168.6 million and is on a phenominal track.  Winnie the Pooh is a very quiet opener in contrast.  This weekend is up a stunning 46% from the same weekend last year.  

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is on track for a terrific domestic gross of $480 million.  Horrible Bosses has been upgraded to $108 million, while Zookeeper was bumped up slightly to $71 million.  Transformers: Dark of the Moon is stabilizing at $373 million.  Larry Crowne is on track for $37 million and Monte Carlo is on pace for $24 million.       

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will average a good $38,500 per theater at 4,375 theaters (for $168.6 million from Friday-Sunday — a new record opening weekend).  Zookeeper opened with an average $3,300 at 2,405 theaters ($8.0 million).   

The second week declines for the comedies are solid:  Horrible Bosses (-38%) and Zookeeper (-39%). 

July 15-17, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Harry Potter 8             (WB)     $168              $480
Transformers 3         (Par/DW)     $21.3   -55%      $373
Horrible Bosses            (WB)     $17.6   -38%      $108
Zookeeper                (Sony)     $12.3   -39%      $ 71
Cars 2                    (Dis)     $ 8.3   -45%      $187
Winnie the Pooh           (Dis)     $ 8.0             $ 33
Bad Teacher              (Sony)     $ 5.2   -42%      $102
Larry Crowne              (Uni)     $ 2.6   -57%      $ 37
Super 8                   (Par)     $ 1.9   -60%      $130
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 1.9   -28%      $ 48
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $ 1.7   -36%      $168

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $250 million total, up a whopping 46% from the same calendar weekend last year when Inception and Sorcerer’s Apprentice opened.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #28

2011  $250  (
+38% vs 2007-10 average; +46% vs 2010) 

Avg   $181  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $171  Inception $63, Sorcerer’s Apprentice $18    

2009  $152  Harry Potter Half-Blood Prince $78
2008  $254  Dark Knight $158, Mamma Mia! $28, Space Chimps $7
2007  $147  
I Know Pronounce You Chuck & Larry $34, Hairspray $28

To see the original Weekend Predictions click here.  International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.