>Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened with a record $168.6 million and is on a phenominal track. Winnie the Pooh is a very quiet opener in contrast. This weekend is up a stunning 46% from the same weekend last year.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is on track for a terrific domestic gross of $480 million. Horrible Bosses has been upgraded to $108 million, while Zookeeper was bumped up slightly to $71 million. Transformers: Dark of the Moon is stabilizing at $373 million. Larry Crowne is on track for $37 million and Monte Carlo is on pace for $24 million.
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will average a good $38,500 per theater at 4,375 theaters (for $168.6 million from Friday-Sunday — a new record opening weekend). Zookeeper opened with an average $3,300 at 2,405 theaters ($8.0 million).
The second week declines for the comedies are solid: Horrible Bosses (-38%) and Zookeeper (-39%).
July 15-17, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Harry Potter 8 (WB) $168 $480
Transformers 3 (Par/DW) $21.3 -55% $373
Horrible Bosses (WB) $17.6 -38% $108
Zookeeper (Sony) $12.3 -39% $ 71
Cars 2 (Dis) $ 8.3 -45% $187
Winnie the Pooh (Dis) $ 8.0 $ 33
Bad Teacher (Sony) $ 5.2 -42% $102
Larry Crowne (Uni) $ 2.6 -57% $ 37
Super 8 (Par) $ 1.9 -60% $130
Midnight in Paris (Sony) $ 1.9 -28% $ 48
Bridesmaids (Uni) $ 1.7 -36% $168
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $250 million total, up a whopping 46% from the same calendar weekend last year when Inception and Sorcerer’s Apprentice opened.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #28
Volume
(millions)
2011 $250 (+38% vs 2007-10 average; +46% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $181
Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $171 Inception $63, Sorcerer’s Apprentice $18
2009 $152 Harry Potter Half-Blood Prince $78
2008 $254 Dark Knight $158, Mamma Mia! $28, Space Chimps $7
2007 $147 I Know Pronounce You Chuck & Larry $34, Hairspray $28
To see the original Weekend Predictions click here. International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
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