July 10, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Transformers 3 keeps on rolling at #1, while Horrible Bosses opens reasonably well and Zookeeper is more mediocre.  The weekend is looking like it will be down 20% from 2010.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Horrible Bosses is headed for a domestic gross of $97 million, while Zookeeper is on track for a more moderate $66 million.  Transformers: Dark of the Moon has been upgraded to $383 million.  Larry Crowne is on track for $40 million and Monte Carlo is on pace for $24 million (a slight upgrade).  Cars 2 has been upgraded a touch to $190 million, while Bad Teacher is now on track for $104 million.  Green Lantern has stabilized at $117 million, while Mr Popper’s Penguins is holding steady at $69 million.     

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Horrible Bosses will average a good $9,247 per theater at 3,040 theaters (for $28.1 million from Friday-Sunday).  Zookeeper opened with an average $6,031 at 3,482 theaters ($21.0 million).   

The second week declines this weekend are fairly moderate:  Transformers: Dark of the Moon (-52%); Larry Crowne (-52%); Monte Carlo Cars 2 (-49%).  The third weekend films bounced back to pretty good holds:  Cars 2 (-42%) and Bad Teacher (-38%). 

July 8-10, 2011                     Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Transformers 3         (Par/DW)     $47.0   -52%      $383
Horrible Bosses            (WB)     $28.1             $ 97
Zookeeper                (Sony)     $21.0             $ 66
Cars 2                    (Dis)     $15.2   -42%      $190
Bad Teacher              (Sony)     $ 9.0   -38%      $104
Larry Crowne              (Uni)     $ 6.3   -52%      $ 40
Super 8                   (Par)     $ 4.8   -39%      $137
Monte Carlo               (Fox)     $ 3.8   -49%      $ 24
Green Lantern              (WB)     $ 3.1   -52%      $117
Mr Popper’s Penguins      (Fox)     $ 2.8   -49%      $ 69
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 2.7   -24%      $ 49
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $ 2.7   -27%      $168

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $147 million total, down 20% from the same calendar weekend last year.  When we factor in weekday business this past week, it looks like the full week comparison to last year will be down around 18%.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #27

2011  $147  (
-8% vs 2007-10 average; -20% vs 2010) 

Avg   $159 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $184  Despicable Me $56, Predators $25    

2009  $135  Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008  $144  Hellboy II $34, Journey Center Earth $21
2007  $172  Harry Potter Order Phoenix $77

To see the original Weekend Predictions, click here.  On Monday we will have actual numbers for the Friday-Sunday period.  Early international numbers for all films currently in release will be posted as soon as possible.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.