July 8, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Three films are really driving a very solid box office weekend: The Amazing Spider-Man (now a $65.0 million opening weekend and $140 million six-day opening, hitting our forecast in Tuesday’s ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Predictions), the second weekend of Ted (down a very decent 40% from its opening) and the third weekend of Brave (down 41% this weekend, improving on a 49% drop in the second weekend).  Savages, now estimated by Universal to open at $16.2 million this weekend on its way to a ShowbuzzDaily final domestic forecast of $53 million, will not be a factor at the box office in coming weeks.  The other opener, Katy Perry: Part of Me, is headed for only $7.2 million in its first traditional weekend and $10.2 million over its first four days.  It might hit $22 million total domestic — even with an extremely low budget this is not a moneymaker.     

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $187 million for the weekend, up substantially from the previous years, as this year the Fourth of July falling on a Wednesday really kick-started the Friday-Sunday period.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  The Amazing Spider-Man ($289 million), Savages ($53 million) and Katy Perry: Part of Me ($22 million).

Second week films: Ted ($209 million, up significantly from last week’s initial estimate), Magic Mike ($111 million, down somewhat from last week), Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($66 million, down from last week) and People Like Us ($14 million, down a touch from last week).

Third week films: Brave ($242 million, up from last week) and Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter ($37 million, even with last week).

Fourth week films:  Rock of Ages ($40 million, down slightly for the second week in a row) and That’s My Boy ($38 million, down slightly for the second week in a row).

Fifth week films:  Madagascar 3 ($226 million, up slightly from last week) and Prometheus ($128 million, down slightly for the second week in a row).

Weekend 27: July 6-8, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Amazing Spider-Man Sony 65.0 289
Ted Uni -40% 32.6 209
Brave Dis -41% 20.2 242
Savages Uni 16.2 53
Magic Mike WB -60% 15.6 111
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG -60% 10.2 66
Madagascar 3 Par DW -35% 7.7 226
Katy Perry: Part of Me Par 7.2 22
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni -6% 4.6 45
To Rome with Love Uni +406% 3.5 n/a
People Like Us Dis -47% 2.3 14
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -51% 2.2 615


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $187 million total Friday-Sunday, up 28% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #27 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $187 Amazing Spider-Man $65, Savages $16
2011 $146 Horrible Bosses $28, Zookeeper $20
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56, Predators $25
2009 $135 Bruno $31, I Love You Beth Cooper $5
2008 $144 Hellboy II $35, Journey Center Earth $21
Avg 2008-11 $152

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend is Ice Age: Continental Drift from 20th Century Fox.  This film will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($169.2 million opening weekend) and Winnie the Pooh ($7.9 million).

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.