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August 12, 2012
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES August 10-12

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Not a bad weekend for the box office this weekend.  Overall business is up about 8% from the similar weekend average.  Three new movies opened (each with a different feel and target demographic target).  No big hits among the three, but three solid performances.    

 

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  The Bourne Idenity ($117 million), The Campaign ($94 million) and Hope Springs ($69 million).

Second week films: Total Recall ($56 million, down from the $65 million last week) and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($51 million).

Third week films:  The Watch ($37 million, same as last week) and Step Up Revolution ($37 million, same as last week’s estimate).

Fourth week films:  The Dark Knight Rises ($445 million, nearly identical to last week’s estimate).

Weekend 32: August 10-12, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Bourne Legacy Uni 40.3 117
The Campaign WB 27.4 94
Dark Knight Rises WB -45% 19.5 445
Hope Springs Sony 15.6 69
Diary of Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox -44% 8.2 51
Total Recall Sony -68% 8.1 56
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox -22% 6.7 163
Ted Uni -42% 3.3 37
Step Up Revolution Sum -52% 2.8 225
The Watch Fox -66% 2.2 37
Amazing Spider-Man Sony -36% 4.3 272
Brave Dis -33% 2.9 232
Magic Mike WB -47% 1.4 116

 

The Bourne Laboratory Results — Universal(star, director) ($ millions)
Critics Positive Opening Weekend  Domestic Total  Overseas Total Worldwide Total
Bourne Legacy (Renner, Gilroy) 8.10.2012 53% 40-est 117-est  n/a n/a
Bourne Ultimatum (Damon, Greengrass) 8.3.2007 94% 69.3 227.5 215.3 442.8
Bourne Supremacy (Damon, Greengrass) 7.23.2004 81% 52.5 176.2 112.3 288.5
Bourne Identity (Damon, Limon) 6.14.2002 83% 27.1 121.7 92.3 214.0

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are headed for $138 million total Friday-Sunday, down 3% from the same calendar weekend last year but up a decent 8% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #32 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $138 Bourne Legacy $40, The Campaign $27, Hope Springs $15.5
2011 $143 The Help $26, Final Destination 5 $18, 30 Minutes or Less $13
2010 $132 The Expendables $35, Eat Pray Love $23, Scott Pilgrim vs World $11
2009 $125 District 9 $37, Time Traveler’s Wife $19
2008 $112 Tropic Thunder $26, Star Wars Clone Wars $15, Mirrors $11
Avg 2008-11 $128

Total Box Office Volume

Opening wide next weekend are The Expendables from Lionsgate, ParaNorman from Focus — Universal, The Odd Life of Timothy Green from Disney, and parkle from TriStar.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Spy Kids: All the Tine in the World  ($11.6 million opening weekend), Conan the Barbarian ($10.0 million), 30 Minutes or Less ($13.3 million) and Fright Night ($7.7 million).

International grosses will be updated later today.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.