June 3, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES June 1-3 — Snow White Leads Soft Box Office

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Snow White and the Huntsman now looks like a $56.255 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (up a touch from yesterday’s early estimate and exceeding our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowBuzzDaily Weekend Predictions by a wide margin).        

The box office volume for the top 12 films is looking like $135.5 million for the weekend, down 12% from this weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Snow White and the Huntsman ($161 million).

Second week films:  Men in Black 3 ($187 million, adjusted up from the last week’s projection), Chernobyl Diaries ($18 million, adjusted up somewhat) and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($41 million, adjusted up slightly).

Third week films: Battleship ($68 million, steady versus last week), The Dictator ($66 million, even with last week) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($42 million, adjusted up slightly from last week). 

Fourth week film:  Dark Shadows ($80 million, steady versus last week’s estimate).  

Fifth week films:  Marvel’s The Avengers ($628 million, adjusted up again from last week’s estimate).


Weekend 22: June 1-3, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni 56.3 161
Men in Black 3 Par -46% 29.3 187
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -45% 20.3 628
Battleship Uni -56% 4.8 68
The Dictator Par -49% 4.7 66
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox -28% 4.6 41
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG -38% 4.4 42
Dark Shadows WB -49% 3.9 80
Chernobyl Diaries WB -62% 3.0 18
The Hunger Games LG -35% 1.5 400


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $135.5 million total Friday-Sunday, down 12% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 11% from the average for this weekend the past four years.  Snow White and the Hunstman‘s opening is in the same league as other top films from this weekend the past few years (X-Men: First Class last year and Kung Fu Panda in 2008), but the big difference is that Memorial Day films return for much stronger second weekends in most years, providing a much broader box office base.  

($ millions)
WEEKEND #22 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $136 Snow White and the Huntsman $56
2011 $154 X-Men: First Class $55
2010 $122 Get Him to Greek $17, Killers $16, Marmaduke $11
2009 $161 The Hangover $45, Land of the Lost $19
2008 $171 Kung Fu Panda $60, You Don’t Mess with the Zohan $38
Avg 2008-11 $152

Next Weekend             

Opening wide next weekend are Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted from Paramount/ DreamWorks and Prometheus from 20th Century Fox.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Super 8 ($35.5 million opening weekend), Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer ($6.1million) and Midnight in Paris ($5.8 million when it expanded to a fairly wide 944 theaters). 

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.




About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.