May 12, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #19 of 2013 looks like $152 million for the top 12 films, about the same as the $151 million estimate yesterday.  Iron Man 3 picked up the pace with a very strong second Saturday (moving from an estimated $67.4 million second weekend yesterday to $72.5 million today), while The Great Gatsby declined by a similar amount (from almost $58 million estimated yesterday for its opening weekend to about $51 million today).  Gatsby’s opening is still on track to outgross director Baz Luhrmann’s total domestic grosses for Romeo + Juliet ($46.4 million) and Australia ($49.6 million), but not Moulin Rouge! ($57.4 million).

Opening at 3,535 theaters late Thursday, The Great Gatsby from Warner Brothers grossed $19.4 million Thursday night-Friday and $17.6 million Saturday and is now on track for a $51.1 million opening weekend (still well above the $38 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast but down from yesterday’s initial estimate).   The film is averaging $14,500 per theater for the weekend (now a little less than three times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is perfectly mixed: 48% positive at RottenTomatoes (and top critics are not at all impressed: only 32% positive).  Great Gatsby is headed for $132 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,041 theaters Friday, Peeples from Lionsgate is on track for a $4.8 million opening weekend (still well below the $11 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $2,400 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is negative: 37% positive reviews.  Peeples is headed for maybe $10 million total domestic.

Weekend 19

May 10-12, 2013

($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Iron Man 3 Dis [73.9] 67.4 72.5 19.8–32.1 430
Great Gatsby WB [38.0] 57.8 51.1 19.4–17.6 132
Pain and Gain Par [4.1] 4.3 5.0 1.3–2.1 50
Peeples LG [11.0] 4.2 4.8 1.2–1.7 10
42 WB [3.7] 4.0 4.6 1.1–1.9 98
Oblivion Uni [3.0] 3.6 3.9 1.0–1.8 92
The Croods DW/Fox [3.0] 3.4 3.6 .70–1.6 178
The Big Wedding LG [2.4] 2.0 2.5 .57–.95 20
Mud Roadside [2.3] 2.3 2.3 .64–1.1 18

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 6% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #19 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $152 Great Gatsby $51.1, Peeples $4.8
2012 $162 Dark Shadows $29.7
2011 $129 Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0
2010 $131 Robin Hood $36.1, Letters to Juliet $13.5, Just Wright $8.3
2009 $131 Angels & Demons $46.2
Avg 2009-12 $138

Check back later for the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.