Marvel’s The Avengers now looks like a $55.1 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (now exactly hitting our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowBuzzDaily Weekend Predictions). The new films this weekend are trailing badly, however. Battleship looks like a $25.4 million opening weekend and we are projecting a final gross of $62 million domestically. The Dictator looks to be headed for $59 million total domestically. Both films do have significant international revenue, which we will tally later today. The third new film of the weekend, What to Expect When You’re Expecting, has the worst of all worlds: no international potential and a disastrous domestic gross (we are projecting $20 million total for the comedy).
The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $135 million for the weekend, down 15% from this weekend last year.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Battleship ($62 million), The Dictator ($59 million) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($20 million).
Second week film: Dark Shadows ($77 million, about even with last week’s estimate).
Third week films: Marvel’s The Avengers ($605 million, adjusted down slightly from last week’s estimate).
Fourth week films: The Pirates! Band of Misfits ($29 million, adjusted down slightly again from last week’s estimate), The Five-Year Engagement ($30 million, even with last week) and Safe ($16 million, steady versus last week).
| May 18-20 | ($ millions) | ||||
| vs Last Wknd | Wknd Studio Proj. | Showbuzz Domestic Final | |||
| Marvel’s The Avengers | Dis | -50% | 55.1 | 605 | |
| Battleship | Uni | 25.4 | 62 | ||
| The Dictator | Par | 17.4 | 59 | ||
| Dark Shadows | WB | -57% | 12.8 | 77 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | LG | 10.5 | 20 | ||
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | Fox | +22% | 3.3 | n/a | |
| The Hunger Games | LG | -33% | 3.0 | 400 | |
| Think Like a Man | LG | -54% | 2.7 | 94 | |
| The Lucky One | WB | -57% | 1.8 | 61 | |
| Pirates! Band of Misfits | Sony | -54% | 1.5 | 29 | |
| Five-Year Engagement | Uni | -68% | 1.1 | 30 | |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $132 million total Friday-Sunday, down 15% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 16% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
| ($ millions) | |||
| WEEKEND #20 | Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend | |
| 2012 | $135 | Battleship $25, The Dictator $17, What to Expect $11 | |
| 2011 | $159 | Pirates: On Stranger Tides $90 | |
| 2010 | $143 | Shrek Forever After $71, MacGruber $4 | |
| 2009 | $170 | Night at Museum $54, Terminator Salvation $43 | |
| 2008 | $168 | Indiana Jones Kingdom Crystal Skull $100 | |
| Avg 2008-11 | $160 | ||
Next Weekend
Opening wide next weekend are Men in Black 3 from Sony (starring Will Smith and Josh Brolin) and Chernobyl Diaries from Warner Borthers (horror from Paranormal Activity’s Oren Peli). These films will be compared to the following opener from the same weekend last year: The Hangover Part II ($85.9 million opening weekend) and Kung Fu Panda 2 ($47.7 million).
Again, check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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