May 27, 2012


Men in Black 3 now looks like a $55.0 million weekend, according to the studio estimate this morning (up from yesterday’s early estimate and now exactly hitting our forecast in Wednesday’s ShowBuzzDaily Weekend Predictions).  The other new film this weekend, Chernobyl Diaries, is now even lower than projected yesterday: $8.0 million Friday-Sunday.      

The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $147 million for the weekend, down 32% from this weekend last year.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: Men in Black 3 ($155 million), Chernobyl Diaries ($14 million).  Expanding to enough theaters to fit our projection model: Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($39 million).

Second week films: Battleship ($67 million), The Dictator ($67 million, adjusted up somewhat from last week’s projection) and What to Expect When You’re Expecting ($38 million, adjusted up significantly from last week).

Third week film:  Dark Shadows ($79 million, up slightly from last week’s estimate).

Fourth week films:  Marvel’s The Avengers ($611 million, adjusted up slightly from last week’s estimate).


May 25-27 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Men in Black 3 Par 55.0 155
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis -33% 37.0 611
Battleship Uni -58% 10.8 67
The Dictator Par -45% 9.6 67
Chernobyl Diaries WB 8.0 14
Dark Shadows WB -40% 7.5 79
What to Expect When You’re Expecting LG -32% 7.2 38
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Fox +97% 6.4 39
The Hunger Games LG -7% 2.7 400
Think Like a Man LG -47% 1.4 94


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $147 million total Friday-Sunday, down 32% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 14% from the average for this weekend the past four years.  



($ millions)
WEEKEND #21 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $147 Men in Black 3 $55, Chernobyl Diaries $8
2011 $216 Hangover Part II $86, Kung Fu Panda $48
2010 $145 Sex and the City 2 $31, Prince of Persia $30
2009 $161 Up $68, Drag Me to Hell $16
2008 $164 Sex and the City $57, The Strangers $21
Avg 2008-11 $172


Next Weekend             

Opening wide next weekend is Snow White and the Huntsman from Universal (starring Charlize Theron and Chris Hemsworth).  This film will be compared to the following opener from the same weekend last year:  X-Men: First Class ($55.1 million opening weekend). 

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.




About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.