May 25, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates MAY 23-25

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #21 of 2014 now looks like $179 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well below our $205 million forecast and down 28% from the same weekend last year (but still up 6% from the norm for this weekend over the last few years).  Basically, the two openers this weekend are well below forecast and Godzilla is not holding up at all.  

Opening at 3,996 theaters, X-Men: Days of Future Past from 20th Century Fox grossed $36.0 million late Thursday/Friday and $29.6 million Saturday, now putting the film on track for a $90.7 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $96.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $22,700 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Through Monday, the film should total maybe $108 million for the first four days.  Critical sentiment is supportive (91% positive overall and an even better 98% positive with top critics), so Fox has to hold out hope that this latest comic book extravaganza does not decline severely in the next few weeks. X-Men: Days of Future Past is headed for $267 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,555 theaters, Blended from Warner Brothers grossed $4.4 million Friday and $5.2 million Saturday, putting the film on track for $14.2 million opening weekend (below our already soft $21.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $4,000 per theater for the weekend. Through Memorial Day, the romantic comedy should total $17.5 million for the first four days.  Critical sentiment is hostile (15% positive overall and a grim 12% positive with top critics), not unusual territory for an Adam Sandler film. Blended is headed for $42 million total domestic.

Godzilla is headed for $31.4 million in its second weekend (well below forecast and down a big -66% from the opening weekend).  Godzilla has been downgraded to $217 million domestic.  In its third weekend of release, Chef from Open Road Films has expanded to 498 theaters (up from 72 theaters last week) and should average $4,538 per theater this weekend ($2.26 million for Friday-Sunday), enough to crack the top 10.

Weekend 21: May 23-25, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox [96.5] 91.8 90.7 36.0–29.6 267
Godzilla WB [40.5] 31.6 31.4 8.8–11.9 217
Blended WB [21.0] 14.3 14.2 4.4–5.2 42
Neighbors Uni [15.7] 13.9 13.9 4.3–5.1 153
Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony [9.0] 8.2 7.8 2.0–3.0 201
Million Dollar Arm Dis [6.6] 6.5 7.1 1.8–2.7 39
The Other Woman Fox [4.0] 3.6 3.7 1.1–1.4 88
Rio 2 Fox [2.5] 2.5 2.5 .53–1.0 127
Chef Open [—] 2.2 2.3 .56–.89 n/a
Heaven Is For Real Sony [2.9] 1.8 1.9 .50-.77 94
Belle FoxS [—] 1.7 1.7 .43–.66 n/a
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis [2.2] 1.7 1.7 .45–.68 259

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $179 million total Friday-Sunday, up 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down a big 28% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 21 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $179 X-Men: Days of Future Past $90.7, Blended $14.2
2013 $249 Fast & Furious 6 $97.4, The Hangover Part III $41.7, Epic $33.5
2012 $146 Men in Black 3 $54.6, Chernobyl Diaries $8.0, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $6.4
2011 $216 The Hangover Part II $85.9, Kung Fu Panda 2 $47.7
2010 $145 Sex and the City 2 $31.0, Prince of Persia: Sands of Time $30.1
Avg 2010-13 $169

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.