November 27, 2011


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 will drop 70% this weekend but remain at #1, and its final domestic estimate has been upgraded to over $300 million because the second weekend drop could have been even worse.  The Muppets opened decently in second place but is more like a $120+ million picture.  Two too many family films opened this long Thanksgiving weekend, leaving Arthur Christmas and Hugo on the outside looking in.  Overall box office this weekend is running about 8% below the same weekend last year — 2011 will continue to lag behind 2010 by about 4% year to date.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: The Muppets ($122 million), Arthur Christmas ($52 million), Hugo ($49 million) and The Descendants ($40 million). 

Among the second week films, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 has been upgraded a touch ($304 million — also see complete Twilight film track below), while Happy Feet Two had been taken down a  notch ($78 million).

Immortals has bounced back a bit ($87 million), as has Jack and Jill ($78 million).  J. Edgar has been upgraded a touch ($39 million).

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, The Muppets will average $8,600 per theater (an above average mark) at 3,440 theaters (for $29.5 million from Friday-Sunday and $42.0 million since Wednesday).  Arthur Christmas is opening with a very poor $3,800 per theater at 3,376 theaters ($12.7 million Friday-Sunday and almost $17 million since Wednesday).  In contrast, Hugo will average a solid $8,900 per theater (but at only 1,277 theaters) for $11.35 million Friday-Sunday and $15.4 million since Wednesday.  In a limited expansion, The Descendants (starring George Clooney and from Sideways director Alexander Payne) averaged a very good $16,600 per theater in its second weekend at 433 theaters (for $7.2 million Friday-Sunday and almost $11 million since its very limited opening last Friday).  My Week with Marilyn will average $7,300 per theater at 244 theaters this opening weekend ($1.8 million Friday-Sunday and $2.1 million since Wednesday).    

November 25-27, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $42.0   -70%      $304+
The Muppets               (Dis)     $29.5             $122
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $13.4   -37%      $ 78-
Arthur Christmas         (Sony)     $12.7             $ 52
Hugo                      (Par)     $11.4             $ 49
Immortals                 (Rel)     $ 8.8   -29%      $ 87+
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $10.3   -12%      $ 78+
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $ 7.5   -31%      $166
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $ 7.3   + 3%      $ 82+
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 7.2             $ 40
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $ 4.9   -16%      $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Twilight Saga Film Track            Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Twilight                11.21.2008   $ 69.6    $192.8    $199.8

Twilight New Moon       11.20.2009   $142.8    $296.6    $413.2

Twilight Eclipse         6.30.2010   $ 64.8    $300.5    $397.9

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a disappointing $157 million total Friday-Sunday, down 8% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Tangled open solidly and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 held much more of its opening than any Twilight film could).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #47

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $157  Muppets $29, Arthur Christmas $13, Hugo $11.5
2010  $171  Tangled $49, Burlesque $12, Love & Other Drugs $10   
2009  $175  Old Dogs $17, Ninja Assassin $13, Fantastic Mr Fox $7

2008  $155  Four Christmases $31, Australia $15 Transporter3 $12 
2007  $ 76  Awake $6
Avg   $144 

Next Weekend
No wide release films are opening next week, kind of a hangover weekend after the doorbuster Thanksgiving weekend blowout.  Last year on the weekend after Thanksgiving, only The Warrior’s Way ($3 million opening weekend) tried its luck — the same thing as a weekend without any openers.

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.