November 18, 2012


The weekend looks like a terrific $242 million for the top 12 films, a little better than it looked yesterday (now 20% better than the multi-year average for this weekend).  Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 2 appears a little stronger than it did yesterday and is close to matching our predictions in Wednesday’s  ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Forecast.  Lincoln will definitely exceed our more modest prediction of $17.5 milion.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 ($289 million) and Lincoln ($89 million).

Second week films:  Skyfall ($266 million, up from the initial $208 million estimate last week).

Third week films: Wreck-It Ralph ($178 million,in between $183 million in week two and $171 million in week one) and Flight ($86 million, similar to $87 million in week two and up from $78 million in week one).

Fourth week films:  Cloud Atlas ($28 million, down slightly from the $30-32 million range the first three weeks).

Weekend 46: Nov 16-18, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Breaking Dawn Part 2 Summit 141.3 289
Skyfall Sony -53% 41.5 266
Lincoln Disney +2124% 21.0 89
Wreck-It Ralph Disney -45% 18.3 178
Flight Par -42% 8.6 86
Argo WB -38% 4.1 107
Taken 2 Fox -48% 2.1 142
Pitch Perfect Universal -51% 1.3 67
Here Comes the Boom Sony/Col -52% 1.2 45


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like a great $242 million total Friday-Sunday, up 20% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 13% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #46 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $242 Breaking Dawn Part 2 $141, Lincoln $21
2011 $215 Breaking Dawn Part 1 $138, Happy Feet Two $21
2010 $186 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125
2009 $250 Twilight New Moon $143, The Blind Side $34
2008 $157 Twilight $69, Bolt $26
Avg 2008-11 $202

Opening Next Week

Opening wide Wednesday for the big Thanksgiving weekend:  Rise of the Guardians from Paramount/DreamWorks (animation), Life of Pi from 20th Century Fox (adventure from director Ang Lee), and Red Dawn from FilmDistrict (a remake of the military invasion movie starring Josh Hutcherson).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  The Muppets ($29.2 million opening weekend Fri-Sun and $41.5 million Wed-Sun at 3,440 theaters), Arthur Christmas ($12.1 million Fri-Sun and $16.3 million Wed-Sun at 3,376 theaters), Hugo ($11.4 million Fri-Sun and $15.4 million Wed-Sun at only 1,277 theaters), and The Descendants ($7.3 million Fri-Sun and $10.9 million Wed-Sun at a limited 390 theaters).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.