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| Why did it snow on my weekend? |
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Puss in Boots looks like a $34 million opening weekend. The highly unusual late-October snowstorm in the northeast certainly reduced the opening numbers for Puss, but the weather also seemed to have a strong impact on the holdovers. After weeks of seeing weekend declines in the 30-45% range, the fall-offs were consistently in the 45-60+% range. Still, the weekend volume of $93 million managed to beat last year’s number by 10%, when Saw 3D was the lone opener.
Paranormal Activity 3 has been upgraded slightly to $119 million, while The Three Musketeers is holding at $20 million and Johnny English Reborn at $8 million.
October 28-30, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $34.0 $129
Paranormal Activity 3 (Par) $18.5 -65% $119+
In Time (Fox) $12.0 $ 28
Footloose (Par) $ 5.4 -48% $ 54-
The Rum Diary (FilmDis) $ 5.0 $ 19
Real Steel (DW/Dis) $ 4.7 -57% $ 87-
The Three Musketeers (Summit) $ 3.5 -60% $ 20
Ides of March (Sony) $ 2.7 -44% $ 41
Moneyball (Sony) $ 2.4 -40% $ 76
Dolphin Tale (WB) $ 1.6 -62% $ 71
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like a good $93 million total, up 10% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Saw 3D opened).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #43
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $ 94 Puss in Boots $34, In Time $12, Rum Diary $5
2010 $ 85 Saw 3D $22.5
2009 $ 83 Michael Jackson’s This Is It $23
2008 $ 74 Zach and Miri Make a Porno $10, Changeling $9
2007 $122 American Gangster $44, Bee Movie $38
2007-10
Avg $ 91
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Tower Heist from Universal and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers/ New Line. Those movies will be compared to Megamind ($46.0 million opening weekend), Due Date ($32.7 million) and For Colored Girls ($19.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
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