September 22, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates SEPTEMBER 20-22

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #38 of 2013 now looks like $75 million for the top 12 films, down 15% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,260 theaters Friday, Prisoners from Warner Brothers grossed $7 million Friday and $9 million Saturday, now on track for a $21.4 million opening weekend (somewhat above the $18.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,600 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is solid (79% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 84% positive with top critics). Prisoners is headed for $69 million total domestic (a slight upgrade from yesterday).

Opening at 2,008 theaters Friday, Battle of the Year from Sony grossed $1.4 million Friday and $2.1 million Saturday, now pacing toward a $5 million opening weekend (closer to but still below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very weak three-day average of $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is quite low (only 6% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 12% positive with top critics). Battle of the Year is headed for a quick exit from theaters and maybe $8 million total domestic.

The final domestic gross estimates for Instructions Not Included has been adjusted to $46 million. Everything else remains pretty much on the previous tracks.

  Weekend 38: September 20-22, 2013 ($ millions)
  Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate  Actual Fri-Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
  Prisoners WB [18.5] 20.2 21.4 7.0–9.0 69
  Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [15.5] 13.6 14.5 4.7–6.4 87
  The Family Rel [7.1] 6.5 7.0 2.1–3.2 40
  Instructions Not Included LG/Sun [3.2] 6.7 5.7 1.4–2.1 46
  Battle of the Year Sony [6.5] 4.0 5.0 1.4–2.1 8
  We’re the Millers WB [3.8] 4.5 4.7 1.4–2.2 149
  Lee Daniels’ The Butler Weins [3.9] 4.2 4.3 1.2–2.0 121
  Riddick Uni [3.2] 3.6 3.7 1.0–1.6 43
  Wizard of Oz 3D WB [—] 2.6 3.0 .75–1.3 n/a
  Planes Dis [2.3] 2.5 2.9 .54–1.4 89

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $75 million total Friday-Sunday, (revised up from $72 million yesterday morning)  but still down a hefty 15% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and now even with the same weekend last year.

  WEEKEND 38 ($ millions)
  Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
  2013 $75 Prisoners $21.4, Battle of the Year $5.0
  2012 $75 End of Watch $13.2, House at End of Street $12.3, Trouble with Curve $12.2, Dredd 3D $6.3
  2011 $106 Moneyball $19.5, Dolphin Tale $19.2, Abduction $10.9, Killer Elite $9.3
  2010 $91 Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps $19.0, Legend of the Guardians $16.1, You Again $8.4
  2009 $83 Surrogates $14.9, Fame $10.0, Pandorum $4.4
  Avg 2009-12 $89  

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.