September 23, 2012


The weekend now looks like $77 million for the top 12 films, up a bit from the estimate yesterday.  End of Watch, House at the End of the Street and Trouble with the Curve are all within a few thousand dollars, according to the studio estimates for the weekend.  The rank order could easily change tomorrow morning when the actual numbers for Sunday are tallied.  


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Trouble with the Curve ($47 million), End of Watch ($46 million), House at the End of the Street ($26 million), The Master ($25 million) and Dredd 3D ($15 million).

Second week films:  Finding Nemo 3D ($57 million, down significantly from a $70 million initial estimate last week) and Resident Evil: Retribution ($42 million, down from a $53 million estimate last week).

Third week films:  The Words ($13 million, steady with last week).

Fourth week films:  The Possession ($51 million, down $1 million from last week) and Lawless ($41 million, even with last week).

Weekend 38: Sep 21-23, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
End of Watch Open Road 13.0 46
House at End of Street Relativity 13.0 26
Trouble with the Curve WB 12.7 47
Finding Nemo 3D Disney -43% 9.4 57
Resident Evil: Retribution Sony -68% 6.7 42
Dredd 3D Lionsgate 6.3 15
The Master Weinstein +579% 5.0 25
The Possession Lionsgate -54% 2.6 51
Lawless Weinstein -47% 2.3 41
ParaNorman Foc/Uni -26% 2.3 58
Bourne Legacy Uni -42% 1.6 116
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis -41% 1.5 54


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $77 million total Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s initial $73 million estimate but still down a hefty 27% from the same weekend last year and down 16% from the average comparable weekend the last four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #38 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $77 End of Watch $13, House End Street $13, Trouble Curve $12.7
2011 $106 Moneyball $20, Dolphin Tale $19, Abduction $11
2010 $91 Wall Street 2 $19, Legend of Guardians $16
2009 $83 Surrogates $15, Fame $10, Pandorum $4
2008 $88 Eagle Eye $29, Nights in Rodanthe $13
Avg 2008-11 $92

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are Hotel Transylvania from Sony/Columbia (animation featuring the voices of Adam Sandler and Kevin James), Looper from Sony/TriStar (sci-fi action starring Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon-Levitt) and Won’t Back Down from 20th Century Fox (drama starring Viola Davis and Maggie Gyllenhaal).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Courageous ($9.1 million opening weekend), 50/50 ($8.6 million), Dream House ($8.1 million) and What’s Your Number? ($5.4 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.