September 16, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The weekend now looks like $70 million for the top 12 films, just a shade lower than the estimate yesterday.  The rank order remains the same, with Resident Evil: Retribution opening at #1 ahead of Finding Nemo 3D (although Nemo will outgross Retribution over the course of their theatrical runs).  


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Finding Nemo 3D ($70 million) and Resident Evil: Retribution ($53 million).

Second week films:  The Words ($13 million, up $2 million from last week’s initial estimate).

Third week films:  The Possession ($52 million, even with last week) and Lawless ($41 million, even with last week).

Fourth week films:  2016 Obama’s America ($35 million, even with last week) and Premium Rush ($22 million, down $2 million from last week).

Weekend 37: Sep 14-16, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Resident Evil: Retribution Sony 21.1 53
Finding Nemo 3D Dis 17.5 70
The Possession LG -38% 5.8 52
Lawless Weins -30% 4.2 41
ParaNorman Foc/Uni -28% 3.0 56
The Expendables 2 LG -39% 3.0 87
The Words CBS -39% 2.9 13
Bourne Legacy Uni -28% 2.9 116
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis -31% 2.5 51
The Campaign WB -29% 2.4 90
Dark Knight Rises WB -34% 2.1 444
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mtn -39% 2.0 35


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $70 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than last week’s miserable $52 million but down 19% from the same weekend last year and down 17% from the average comparable weekend the last four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #37 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $70 Resident Evil Retribution $21, Finding Nemo 3D $17.5
2011 $86 Lion King 3D $30, Drive $11, Straw Dogs $5
2010 $87 The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12
2009 $87 Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10
2008 $76 Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend’s Girl $8
Avg 2008-11 $84

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are Trouble with the Curve from Warner Brothers (drama starring Clint Eastwood), House at the End of the Street from Relativity (thriller starring Jennifer Lawrence), End of Watch from Open Road Films (crime drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Pena) and Dredd from Lionsgate (science fiction action).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Moneyball ($19.5 million opening weekend), Dolphin Tale ($19.2 million), Abduction ($10.9 million) and Killer Elite ($9.3 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.