July 3, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Another down week at the North American box office, although the declines are not severe as last week.  With the arrival of Spider-Man early this week and expected decent mid-week business for two solid openers this past weekend, next week at this time should show some plus signs again in the weekly comparisons.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between June 25 and July 1 grossed $294 million, down 11% from the same week in 2011 and down 9% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Year to date (now $5.1 billion for wide-release films) is still 9% ahead of 2011 (although the-year-to-date pace was +12% just three weeks ago and fully +21% seven weeks ago).  Similarly, the year-to-date total is 6% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the similar period (although the pace was +11% just three weeks ago and +17% seven weeks ago).

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through July 1, 2012 ($ millions)
2011 4-year Average 2012 vs 2011 vs 4yr Avg
Week #26 $331 $324 $294 -11% -9%
Year to Date $4,704 $4,817 $5,119 +9% +6%
Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

Very accurate studio estimates this weekend.  Ted came in at $54.415 million for its official opening weekend, a mere 0.6% above the estimate from Universal (based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and estimating Sunday’s take).  Magic Mike came in at $39.127 million, only 0.1% below the estimate issued by Warner Brothers Sunday morning.  And the second weekend of Brave came in at $39.094 million, 0.2% above the Disney estimate.  Only Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection was significantly mis-estimated: the actual $25.391 million opening weekend was 3.6% (or almost $1 million) below the Lionsgate estimate. 


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Brave 221 94
Madagascar 3 220 94
Men in Black 3 184 92
Ted 171 91
Snow White and the Huntsman
158 89
Prometheus 133 86
Magic Mike 129 85
TP’s Medea’s Witness Protection 79 71
Rock of Ages 44 51
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 45 52
That’s My Boy 42 49
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 38 45
People Like Us 15 14
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World 8 4


Weekend Predictions for the July 6-8 weekend should be posted in the next day or so. This week features the early debuts of Amazing Spider-Man on Tuesday, Katy Perry: Part of Me on Thursday, and Savages with a traditional Friday opening.

Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.