Another down week at the North American box office, although the declines are not severe as last week. With the arrival of Spider-Man early this week and expected decent mid-week business for two solid openers this past weekend, next week at this time should show some plus signs again in the weekly comparisons.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between June 25 and July 1 grossed $294 million, down 11% from the same week in 2011 and down 9% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Year to date (now $5.1 billion for wide-release films) is still 9% ahead of 2011 (although the-year-to-date pace was +12% just three weeks ago and fully +21% seven weeks ago). Similarly, the year-to-date total is 6% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the similar period (although the pace was +11% just three weeks ago and +17% seven weeks ago).
| Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through July 1, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| 2011 | 4-year Average | 2012 | vs 2011 | vs 4yr Avg | ||
| Week #26 | $331 | $324 | $294 | -11% | -9% | |
| Year to Date | $4,704 | $4,817 | $5,119 | +9% | +6% | |
Very accurate studio estimates this weekend. Ted came in at $54.415 million for its official opening weekend, a mere 0.6% above the estimate from Universal (based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and estimating Sunday’s take). Magic Mike came in at $39.127 million, only 0.1% below the estimate issued by Warner Brothers Sunday morning. And the second weekend of Brave came in at $39.094 million, 0.2% above the Disney estimate. Only Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection was significantly mis-estimated: the actual $25.391 million opening weekend was 3.6% (or almost $1 million) below the Lionsgate estimate.
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
| Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates | Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) | percentile | |
| Brave | 221 | 94 | |
| Madagascar 3 | 220 | 94 | |
| Men in Black 3 | 184 | 92 | |
| Ted | 171 | 91 | |
| Snow White and the Huntsman |
158 | 89 | |
| Prometheus | 133 | 86 | |
| Magic Mike | 129 | 85 | |
| TP’s Medea’s Witness Protection | 79 | 71 | |
| Rock of Ages | 44 | 51 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | 45 | 52 | |
| That’s My Boy | 42 | 49 | |
| Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter | 38 | 45 | |
| People Like Us | 15 | 14 | |
| Seeking a Friend for the End of the World | 8 | 4 |
Weekend Predictions for the July 6-8 weekend should be posted in the next day or so. This week features the early debuts of Amazing Spider-Man on Tuesday, Katy Perry: Part of Me on Thursday, and Savages with a traditional Friday opening.
Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.
About the Author
