October 30, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 22 and October 28 grossed a mediocre $119 million, even with the four-year average for the week and down 3% from the same week last year.   

The past six weeks are now 7% above the four-year average box office average and fully 12% above the same six-week period last year (not because this past week was great but rather the week moving out of the six-week average was extremely low).  

Year to date box office (now almost $8.2 billion for wide-release films) is still running 5% above both the average for the same period the last four years and last year at this time.

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through October 28, 2012 ($ millions)  2012 vs 2011  2012 vs 4yr Avg
2011 4-year Average 2012
Week #43 $123 $119 $119 -3% +0%
Past Six Weeks $761 $798 $850 +12% +7%
Year to Date $7,798 $7,794 $8,194 +5% +5%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimate

None of the openers from the past weekend were overstated by their studios Sunday morning.  Each of the four films opening last weekend met or significantly exceeded the Sunday studio estimate, something that very rarely happens.

Cloud Atlas came in officially at $9,612,247 for its opening weekend, up 2.3% from the Warner Brothers estimate Sunday.  

Silent Hill: Revelation 3D came in at $8,023,036 in its opening weekend, up 0.3% from the Sunday estimate.

Fun Size opened officially with $4,101,017, up 1.0% from the Paramount estimate.

Finally, Chasing Mavericks opened with $2,268,274, up 3.1% from the Sunday estimate.


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.  

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Estimates Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Hotel Transylvania 153 89
Taken 2 132 86
Argo 96 76
Looper 69 64
Pitch Perfect 67 63
Paranormal Activity 4 53 53
Sinister 51 51
Here Comes the Boom 42 46
End of Watch 40 44
Frankenweenie 38 42
Trouble with the Curve 36 36
Cloud Atlas 32 31
House at the End of the Street 31 31
Alex Cross 27 26
Seven Psychopaths 20 15
The Master 16 11
Dredd 3D 13 7
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D 11 6
Fun Size 10 4
Chasing Mavericks 6 1


Weekend Predictions for November 2-4 should be posted Wednesday.  This weekend features the openings of Wreck-It Ralph (animation from Disney), Flight (drama from Paramount) and The Man with the Iron Fists (Universal).


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.